The New England Patriots are 6-4 and enter Week 12 as the six seed in the AFC playoff race. Even sweeter, the Patriots extended their winning streak against the New York Jets to 14 games. Damien Harris ran with fresh legs, Mac Jones played turnover-free football, and the defense was absurd yet again.
Matthew Judon added a sack and a half to his league-leading total and Kyle Dugger was a one-man wrecking crew, nearly stamping Zach Wilson into the ground at Gillette permanently. Big Davon Godchaux even nearly got credited with a touchdown! Side note: did you see how confident Zach Wilson was in assuring his teammates that he was down by contact before the ball came out on that play? That’s the most confident Wilson has been all season. If only it carried over to throwing the football! Moving on…
The Patriots defense allowed a mere 103 total yards. That’s the lowest single game total by an NFL team this season. Oh, and 101 of them were in the first half. God love the Jets, am I right? And this is a Jets team that their fanbase is excited about, to boot! Yes, the Patriots offense left a lot to be desired. Yes, we needed a punt return touchdown by Marcus Jones to pull off the nail-biter. But YES, we are 6-4, and in the playoff hunt.
The win helped me to feel better about a 1-2 week betting player props. Last week, I expected Jakobi Meyers and Garrett Wilson to each yield at least five receptions. I underrated just how inept Zach Wilson is as a passer apparently, as the rookie wideout only mustered up two receptions for 12 yards. Meyers was closer, bringing in four grabs for 52 yards. I even noted that four was the number I wanted, but with it at -225 odds, I rolled the dice on five receptions at +100 odds. I’m okay taking that L. For me, there’s no value betting player props at -225 odds unless they are legs on a larger parlay.
I did hit on my favorite play of the day, which was Michael Carter to fall short of 44.5 rushing yards. He never stood a chance, finishing the day with eight carries for 19 yards. The Patriots defense is exceptional, Michael Carter is not, and he’s sharing carries to boot. My only regret is not wagering more on that one.
The Patriots have a quick turnaround this week, playing in the evening game on Thanksgiving against the Minnesota Vikings. While the Patriots are coming off a close win, the Vikings are reeling from a 40-3 blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Let’s take a look at my top three player props for the game.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 12: #3
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson under 64.5 rushing yards – DraftKings Sportsbook (-130)
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a revelation this year for the Patriots. He is elusive, strong, and has soft hands. As such, he’s become a threat in both the running and passing game. When he has the ball in space, he is tough to bring down. Last game, Stevenson turned what should have been a drive-ender into a first down. The Jets defense needed six guys to bring him down.
Rhamondre Stevenson, wow, what an effort. pic.twitter.com/tvA92C5owm
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 20, 2022
All of that said, Damien Harris looked good last week. He looked really good. He had fresh legs and burst, and he got to the second level with ease against a very good Jets run defense (9th in rush YPG). It served as a reminder that when each is healthy, the Patriots offense loves to employ both backs. As the season wears on and the Patriots make a playoff push (did I mention we’re in the playoff hunt?), the offense will need both.
In the first four weeks of the season before Harris was injured in Week 5, he outcarried Stevenson 53 to 43. Stevenson has since been the bellcow, but Harris is very much back in the picture. In Week 11, he had eight carries for 65 yards, and added two receptions for 28 yards through the air. Stevenson had 15 carries but only totaled 26 yards, his lowest output of the season since Week One and by far his lowest YPC of the season at 1.73.
I think the Patriots will continue to get Harris more work and Stevenson will fall back to 10-12 carries per game, while remaining a threat in the pass game. Take the under here.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 12: #2
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson under 49.5 receiving yards – DraftKings Sportsbook (-150)
The Vikings stole T.J. Hockenson ahead of the trade deadline. That’s a fact. The former top 10 pick was rock solid for a poor Detroit Lions team, and has done nothing to temper expectations for Vikings fans. Upon arrival, he learned the playbook in short order and went out and played pitch and catch to the tune of nine receptions for 70 yards. He has had at least nine targets in each of his games with the Vikings and has had no fewer than five receptions.
So why the under? Two words. Kyle Dugger. When healthy, Dugger generally draws the matchup on an athletic pass-catching tight end and is all-world with those responsibilities. The Patriots have allowed north of 49.5 receiving yards to tight ends only three times this year. In Week 3, Mark Andrews had eight receptions for 89 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 6, David Njoku had three catches for 58 yards. In Week 8, Tyler Conklin had six receptions for 79 yards. Funny how that works: Kyle Dugger was injured and did not play in Weeks 3 or 8.
When Kyle Dugger was back in the lineup last week, Tyler Conklin had a lowly two receptions for 15 yards. Dugger lined up on Hockenson in Week 5 when the tight end was with Detroit and he was only able to bring in one catch for six yards. After the game, Hockenson said, “You can’t say that they didn’t have some things for us. They are a very moving front and they do a lot of things up front. For me even to get out on a route was tough, because their ends were just not too worried about the rush and they were hammering me and it was just one of those things.”
Coach Belichick will definitely aim to throw those same things at Hockenson on Thursday night, while quarterback Kirk Cousins surely aims to force-feed stud wideout Justin Jefferson. Take the under here. I expect Hockenson to bring in three or four grabs and be in the 25-35 yard range.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 12: #1
Patriots QB Mac Jones over 19.5 completions – DraftKings Sportsbook (-110)
Listen, we cashed this once already this season and we’ll do it again. Mac Jones for 20+ completions at -110 odds is too good to pass up. Jones has not completed fewer than 20 passes all season, save for the Bears game when he was pulled from the game after only six attempts.
The way critics talk about the Patriots offense, you’d think Mac Jones was a high school JV quarterback or, worse yet, Zach Wilson. The Patriots throw the football. Again save for the Chicago game, Mac Jones averages 31.5 pass attempts per game this season. For his career, he owns a 67.9% completion percentage. You do the math.
Additionally, while the Vikings defense is much improved in a lot of ways, they haven’t been tremendous against the pass. The Vikings concede 267.3 passing yards per game, which ranks them 31st in the league. In Week 3, Jared Goff completed 25 passes on this defense. In Week 4, Andy Dalton had 20. Just last week, Dak Prescott completed 22 passes, in a game where the Cowboys carried the ball 40 times.
On top of the aforementioned, this is a bet on game script. The Vikings have Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and an offense that can score. I do think the Patriots defense will fare better than most against Minnesota, but the Vikes are going to put points on the board. To stand a chance, the Patriots are going to need to keep up. Last week, Mac Jones played a nice game of football, going 23/27 for 246 yards. I believe he will at least duplicate that on Thursday. If you’re feeling frisky, sprinkle a few bucks on him tossing a pair of touchdowns (+175 on DraftKings), but at minimum, take the over 19.5 completions here.