The New England Patriots suffered a significant setback last Thursday night against the Minnesota Vikings, dropping to 6-5 on the season and back into last place in the AFC East. Despite playing arguably their finest offensive game of the season, the Patriots did not have enough juice in the high-scoring Thanksgiving affair. Hopefully, everyone enjoyed their pie, at least.
Mac Jones was a smooth operator, finally flaunting some of the promise he showed in his rookie campaign. In throwing for 382 yards, Jones set a new career high for himself, adding two touchdowns and boasting a quarterback rating of 119.8. He completed 71.8% of his passes and leaned on workhorse Rhamondre Stevenson, who brought in nine receptions.
We saw DeVante Parker, Hunter Henry, and Jakobi Meyers contribute, and there were even rare sightings from Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Agholor was perhaps most surprising; his six receptions and 65 yards match his totals from Week 4 through Week 11 combined. Productivity from wideouts not named Jakobi Meyers is always a sight for sore eyes.
This game was lost on special teams. Rookie running back Pierre Strong made a critical error by running into the punter and giving the Vikings a fresh set of downs. And in the third quarter, Vikings’ Kene Nwangwu returned a kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. Yes, officiating undoubtedly played a factor (like the blatant missed holding call and the aforementioned kick return TD). Still, the bottom line is the Patriots made too many mistakes to win, and Justin Jefferson was absurd as usual. Tough combination to overcome.
Officials missed a hold on Kyle Dugger on that kick-return touchdown. pic.twitter.com/SEQEUYHZAV
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) November 25, 2022
In the betting department, we did a bit better. In fact, we did a lot better. Rhamondre Stevenson delivered an under in rushing yards, the Patriots defense just barely kept T.J. Hockenson under on receiving yards, and Mac Jones covered my favorite bet of the day with 28 completions on a line of 19.5. Yes, we went a cool 3-0, and if you trusted my bonus play of Jones throwing for a pair of touchdowns (175+ on DraftKings), you would have been rewarded with another W there too.
We are back on track at 8-8 for the season, and this week, I have a treat for you. Instead of the usual three wagers, I’m giving you eight. Yes, you read that right; we’ll call it a celebration in honor of Devin McCourty’s 200th career game. Let’s take a look at my top player props for this week’s game against the Buffalo Bills.
Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #8
Patriots QB Mac Jones over 220 passing yards (-125) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Mac Jones played his finest game of the season a week ago against the now-32nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Bills certainly have a better defense than the Vikings on paper, but they still rank in the bottom half of the league. Buffalo allows 221.6 passing yards per game (19th) and only gives up 105.6 yards per game on the ground (7th). Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, the Bills average 415.9 total yards per game (2nd).
It’s a simple game of numbers. Yes, the Patriots have a solid defense, but the Bills are going to move the chains and they are going to score points. That’s the unfortunate reality of what we’re up against. The Vikings just put up 358 yards against this same defense, with a similarly talented #1 option in the passing game and a more one-dimensional option at quarterback.
To keep pace and have a chance at winning this ball game, the Patriots will likely utilize a similar attack as they did last week. Mac Jones involved all his pass-catchers, and the offensive line gave him a mostly clean pocket to throw from. The result was 382 yards. Is that going to happen every week? Certainly not, but it was an encouraging sign of growth.
The last time Jones started against Buffalo, in a 47-17 blowout playoff loss last season, Jones threw for 232 yards. As long as we don’t see weather as we did in Week 13 last year (2/3 for 19 yards), I believe Jones has a solid floor. I expect 250+ yards here.
Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #7
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers over 45 receiving yards (-145) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Along those same lines, it should come as no surprise to see Meyers’ name in this week’s piece. Meyers is Mac Jones’ favorite target, and even when he spreads the ball, Meyers finds a way to make an impact. Last week, DeVante Parker seemed back to full health and caught four balls on four targets. Stevenson saw ten targets, many in check-down situations. Nelson Agholor saw a whopping eight targets, while Henry and even Bourne were involved.
Jakobi Meyers saw only four targets due to a shoulder injury but still managed to turn that into 62 yards. He will give the shoulder a go this week, and like Jones, he has a relatively high floor. Meyers has only gone under 45 yards on two occasions, a Week 7 output of two receptions for 34 yards and in Week 9, where he grabbed five balls for 42 yards.
He will operate mainly from the slot as he always does, drawing a matchup against slot cornerback Taron Johnson. While Johnson has developed into one of the league’s top slot corners, he has had a tough few weeks. Between Week 7 and Week 11, Johnson allowed a catch rate of 82.6% and a 145.6 passer rating. Last week against Detroit, he drew the tough task of Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown, who splits his time between the outside and the slot, put up nine receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown.
As long as Meyers’ shoulder injury doesn’t force an early exit, I expect his usual four to six receptions for 50 or 60 yards.
Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #6 and #5
Bills RB Devin Singletary over 1.5 receptions (-165) and over 11.5 receiving yards (-110) – DraftKings Sportsbook
We are shifting over to the Bills’ side for the next few plays, and this one is a two-for-one. Devin Singletary serves as the primary running back for Buffalo, despite their efforts to get rookie James Cook more involved. He is not a world-beater in any way, and we know this offense runs through Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. However, Singletary is reliable and has a consistent floor on both the ground and through the air.
Through 11 games this season, Singletary is averaging over 11 carries and just over 3.5 targets in the passing game. He has 31 receptions on the season and hasn’t had a game without bringing in at least one catch. Singletary averages 7.29 yards per reception and has totaled 226 receiving yards, good for an average of over 20 yards per game.
With the line at 1.5 receptions and 11.5 receptions, this will likely be a case of all-or-nothing. I’m willing to take my chances. I believe the Patriots’ pass rush will force Allen into some check-down situations, and Singletary has enough wiggle to create after the catch.
The Patriots’ defense has allowed 41 receptions (3.73 ypg) to running backs this season for 340 yards (30.9 ypg). While Cook may get some of that workload, he hasn’t proven to be as effective in the passing game at this stage of his career (nine receptions on the season). I expect two receptions for 15 or 20 yards for Singletary here.
Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #4
Bills WR Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (+100) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Bill Belichick is notorious for trying to take away his opponent’s top option. The problem when playing the Buffalo Bills: who do you take away? This offense has so much firepower that it’s a bit of a pick-your-poison predicament.
Last week against Minnesota, the Patriots’ secondary ceded nine receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown to stud wideout Justin Jefferson. The trouble with trying to take away a wideout like Jefferson is that he plays all over the field. He operates on the perimeter and in the slot with ease, which makes defensive scheming difficult.
Stefon Diggs is similar in that way. He is Josh Allen’s go-to target in the same way that Jefferson serves as Kirk Cousins’ top guy. Diggs has had double-digit targets in seven of his 11 games this season, including an outrageous 16 targets in Week 10 and 15 targets in both Weeks 2 and 12. Josh Allen is going to look his way early and often, and while the Patriots’ secondary is a strength, Diggs is a unicorn and is going to get his regardless.
Diggs with Buffalo has had some impressive games against the Patriots. Who can forget his nine-catch, 145-yard, three-touchdown output in Week 16 of 2020? Frankly, he made J.C. Jackson look silly. And this is not Chargers J.C. Jackson either; he was a Top 10 corner in 2020 who had nine interceptions that season. While Mills and the Joneses have been much better than expected, I don’t believe they’re intimidating Diggs much.
Diggs eats when and where he wants, and I don’t expect Thursday night will be much different. I would have loved to have grabbed this line at six receptions, but to get even odds for seven grabs, you almost can’t afford not to. In the Patriots’ last regular season game against Diggs, he had seven receptions for 85 yards and a score. If we can keep him to that, we’ll cash this wager and still have a chance of winning this ballgame. Fingers crossed.
Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #3 and #2
Bills QB Josh Allen over 7.5 carries (-105) and over 39.5 rushing yards (-140) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Here’s another two-for-one. In case you haven’t noticed, Josh Allen likes to tuck the ball and go. He’s pretty damn good at it too. Through 11 games, Allen has carried the ball 81 times (5th in the NFL among quarterbacks) for 561 yards (4th) and five touchdowns (3rd). He is a threat for a carry on 3rd-and-short or 4th-and-short and at the goal line. And when the pocket breaks down. And on the rare occasion, someone can cover Diggs. And any other scenario, really.
Here’s the other thing. Bill Belichick has never been good at slowing down mobile quarterbacks. It’s really the Achilles’ heel of this unit. Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, Lamar Jackson torched the Patriots’ defense to the tune of 11 carries, 107 yards, and a touchdown. Justin Fields followed the blueprint in Week 7, running 14 times for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Josh Allen does not possess their otherworldly open-field skills, but he is a freight train to bring down. At 6’5” and 237 pounds, he gets downhill in a hurry and isn’t afraid to take on contact. I believe the Patriots’ pass rush will collapse the pocket on him, but I’m not confident we’ll get enough interior push to limit his scrambling lanes. I would feel better about that possibility with a healthy Christian Barmore, but he’s been battling injury for the better part of the season.
I expect Allen to use his feet in this one and have eight or nine carries for 40 yards or so. I took the alt line of 39.5 yards here at -140, but if you are feeling more daring, the standard line at the time of writing this is 42.5 at -120.
Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #1
Patriots LB Matthew Judon at least one sack (-110) – DraftKings Sportsbook
This is my favorite play of the day in a slate of eight lines that I like a lot. Matthew Judon has been on a tear this season, and I expect him to show up when the Patriots need him most on Thursday night.
Through 11 games, Judon has 13 sacks and is still atop the league leaders in that department. With Micah Parsons on his heels with 12, I think he gains some separation this week. Judon was blanked last week, coming up without a sack for only the third time this season. In the first two cases, he responded the next game with a vengeance. After being held without a sack in Week 6 against the Browns, Judon snapped back with 2.5 sacks the following week. After again not recording a sack in Week 8 against the Jets, he responded with three sacks the next game.
The Bills do have a solid pass block win rate, ranking 5th in the NFL, so I don’t expect Judon to respond with a three-sack outing this week. The good news is we only need one, and the Bills’ offensive line still occasionally gives them up. They rank 10th-best in the league, having allowed 23 on the season, but at least two sacks in five straight games.
On top of that, starting left tackle Dion Dawkins has been ruled out for Thursday night’s game with an ankle injury. In comes David Quessenberry, who has the tall task of protecting Josh Allen’s blind side. Quessenberry is a former sixth-round pick who entered after Dawkins went down last week and allowed a sack to James Houston IV, a practice squad call-up who got to Allen twice. When Quessenberry started as the right tackle for the Titans last year, he allowed a league-high 11 sacks.
Call me crazy, but I like the NFL’s league leader in sacks in that matchup.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.