Top Prop Bets for Week 12 Thanksgiving: Patriots vs. Vikings

The New England Patriots are 6-4 and enter Week 12 as the six seed in the AFC playoff race. Even sweeter, the Patriots extended their winning streak against the New York Jets to 14 games. Damien Harris ran with fresh legs, Mac Jones played turnover-free football, and the defense was absurd yet again.

Matthew Judon added a sack and a half to his league-leading total and Kyle Dugger was a one-man wrecking crew, nearly stamping Zach Wilson into the ground at Gillette permanently. Big Davon Godchaux even nearly got credited with a touchdown! Side note: did you see how confident Zach Wilson was in assuring his teammates that he was down by contact before the ball came out on that play? That’s the most confident Wilson has been all season. If only it carried over to throwing the football! Moving on…

The Patriots defense allowed a mere 103 total yards. That’s the lowest single game total by an NFL team this season. Oh, and 101 of them were in the first half. God love the Jets, am I right? And this is a Jets team that their fanbase is excited about, to boot! Yes, the Patriots offense left a lot to be desired. Yes, we needed a punt return touchdown by Marcus Jones to pull off the nail-biter. But YES, we are 6-4, and in the playoff hunt.

The win helped me to feel better about a 1-2 week betting player props. Last week, I expected Jakobi Meyers and Garrett Wilson to each yield at least five receptions. I underrated just how inept Zach Wilson is as a passer apparently, as the rookie wideout only mustered up two receptions for 12 yards. Meyers was closer, bringing in four grabs for 52 yards. I even noted that four was the number I wanted, but with it at -225 odds, I rolled the dice on five receptions at +100 odds. I’m okay taking that L. For me, there’s no value betting player props at -225 odds unless they are legs on a larger parlay.

I did hit on my favorite play of the day, which was Michael Carter to fall short of 44.5 rushing yards. He never stood a chance, finishing the day with eight carries for 19 yards. The Patriots defense is exceptional, Michael Carter is not, and he’s sharing carries to boot. My only regret is not wagering more on that one.

The Patriots have a quick turnaround this week, playing in the evening game on Thanksgiving against the Minnesota Vikings. While the Patriots are coming off a close win, the Vikings are reeling from a 40-3 blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Let’s take a look at my top three player props for the game.

Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 12: #3

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson under 64.5 rushing yards – DraftKings Sportsbook (-130)

Rhamondre Stevenson has been a revelation this year for the Patriots. He is elusive, strong, and has soft hands. As such, he’s become a threat in both the running and passing game. When he has the ball in space, he is tough to bring down. Last game, Stevenson turned what should have been a drive-ender into a first down. The Jets defense needed six guys to bring him down.

All of that said, Damien Harris looked good last week. He looked really good. He had fresh legs and burst, and he got to the second level with ease against a very good Jets run defense (9th in rush YPG). It served as a reminder that when each is healthy, the Patriots offense loves to employ both backs. As the season wears on and the Patriots make a playoff push (did I mention we’re in the playoff hunt?), the offense will need both.

In the first four weeks of the season before Harris was injured in Week 5, he outcarried Stevenson 53 to 43. Stevenson has since been the bellcow, but Harris is very much back in the picture. In Week 11, he had eight carries for 65 yards, and added two receptions for 28 yards through the air. Stevenson had 15 carries but only totaled 26 yards, his lowest output of the season since Week One and by far his lowest YPC of the season at 1.73.

I think the Patriots will continue to get Harris more work and Stevenson will fall back to 10-12 carries per game, while remaining a threat in the pass game. Take the under here.