Patriots football is back in Week 11, coming off a 26-3 win against the Indianapolis Colts and then a much-needed bye week. The New England defense smothered the Colts offense, embarrassing the NFL’s highest-paid offensive line en route to a ridiculous nine sacks. The Colts amassed a mere 121 total offensive yards and couldn’t convert a single third down all game. While the Patriots still left much to be desired on offense, they did enough to win in convincing fashion.
Headed into that game, I stood at a 2-4 record for the year on my posted player prop wagers, following a brutal 0-3 output in Week 8. We performed a bit better in Week Nine, going 2-2 to bring our YTD totals to 4-6 (down 3.48 units YTD). Mac Jones connected with Patriots pass-catchers on 20 completions, covering the 19.5 line, while Thornton was under the 34.5 yards line, finishing with a lone reception for five yards. On the flip side, we expected Alec Pierce to grab at least three receptions and 29 yards. He delivered 23 yards on one grab, giving us our two losses on the day. If we were to see Alec Pierce again this season, he would undoubtedly make my Dead-to-Me list. Never again, Alec.
In Week 11, the Patriots draw the same Jets matchup that I struggled to cap in Week Nine. As a reminder, I envisioned Zach Wilson tucking the ball and escaping a ferocious Patriots pass rush. I believed that would result in at least one Matthew Judon sack and at least 12 rushing yards for Zach Wilson. I missed on both accounts. I can’t wait to right those wrongs in Week 11, as the Patriots win their 14th straight against Gang Green.
Here are my top player prop wagers for the Week 11 matchup against the New York Jets.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 11: #3
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers at least 5 receptions – DraftKings Sportsbook (+100)
I like Jakobi Meyers in Week 11. In fact, I like him every week, but I need to check myself sometimes and wager without bias. It’s been a few weeks since I made a Meyers bet and I’m due. I went back and forth between Meyers at five plus receptions or over 48.5 receiving yards this week. That said, Meyers has shown a safer floor with receptions relative to the line.
Four receptions is really the number I’d like to get here, but with the odds at -225, there’s not enough value for me. I watched the lines all week to see if this dipped down, but to no avail. In the seven games he’s played this year, Jakobi Meyers has had at least five receptions in four of those games, including the last two. In the Week Eight game against the Jets, Meyers was targeted 13 times and with DeVante Parker again questionable to play, Meyers should see plenty of looks.
Meyers has become the most consistent Patriots pass catcher this season and Mac Jones’ go-to option. He is consistently schemed open and has a knack for moving the sticks when the offense needs a big play on third down. He will generally be lined up across from Michael Carter II, who had an interception in the last game and another called back (a pick six, no less). He is a solid slot cornerback, but it didn’t stop Mac from looking for Meyers often. I expect to see the same in Week 11.