Patriots football is back in Week 11, coming off a 26-3 win against the Indianapolis Colts and then a much-needed bye week. The New England defense smothered the Colts offense, embarrassing the NFL’s highest-paid offensive line en route to a ridiculous nine sacks. The Colts amassed a mere 121 total offensive yards and couldn’t convert a single third down all game. While the Patriots still left much to be desired on offense, they did enough to win in convincing fashion.
Headed into that game, I stood at a 2-4 record for the year on my posted player prop wagers, following a brutal 0-3 output in Week 8. We performed a bit better in Week Nine, going 2-2 to bring our YTD totals to 4-6 (down 3.48 units YTD). Mac Jones connected with Patriots pass-catchers on 20 completions, covering the 19.5 line, while Thornton was under the 34.5 yards line, finishing with a lone reception for five yards. On the flip side, we expected Alec Pierce to grab at least three receptions and 29 yards. He delivered 23 yards on one grab, giving us our two losses on the day. If we were to see Alec Pierce again this season, he would undoubtedly make my Dead-to-Me list. Never again, Alec.
In Week 11, the Patriots draw the same Jets matchup that I struggled to cap in Week Nine. As a reminder, I envisioned Zach Wilson tucking the ball and escaping a ferocious Patriots pass rush. I believed that would result in at least one Matthew Judon sack and at least 12 rushing yards for Zach Wilson. I missed on both accounts. I can’t wait to right those wrongs in Week 11, as the Patriots win their 14th straight against Gang Green.
Here are my top player prop wagers for the Week 11 matchup against the New York Jets.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 11: #3
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers at least 5 receptions – DraftKings Sportsbook (+100)
I like Jakobi Meyers in Week 11. In fact, I like him every week, but I need to check myself sometimes and wager without bias. It’s been a few weeks since I made a Meyers bet and I’m due. I went back and forth between Meyers at five plus receptions or over 48.5 receiving yards this week. That said, Meyers has shown a safer floor with receptions relative to the line.
Four receptions is really the number I’d like to get here, but with the odds at -225, there’s not enough value for me. I watched the lines all week to see if this dipped down, but to no avail. In the seven games he’s played this year, Jakobi Meyers has had at least five receptions in four of those games, including the last two. In the Week Eight game against the Jets, Meyers was targeted 13 times and with DeVante Parker again questionable to play, Meyers should see plenty of looks.
Meyers has become the most consistent Patriots pass catcher this season and Mac Jones’ go-to option. He is consistently schemed open and has a knack for moving the sticks when the offense needs a big play on third down. He will generally be lined up across from Michael Carter II, who had an interception in the last game and another called back (a pick six, no less). He is a solid slot cornerback, but it didn’t stop Mac from looking for Meyers often. I expect to see the same in Week 11.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 11: #2
Jets WR Garrett Wilson at least 5 receptions – DraftKings Sportsbook (-140)
The rationale for this wager is almost identical to that of the Meyers bet, but in the opposite direction. Just as Meyers is the highest-volume pass catcher for the Patriots, Garrett Wilson is that guy for the Jets. Corey Davis has been ruled out for the third straight game, so Wilson will once again operate as the team’s number one receiver (likely drawing Jalen Mills on most plays).
Since assuming that role, Garrett Wilson has really come into his own. With rookies especially, recent results can be a great indicator of a receiver growing more comfortable in an offense and a matured chemistry with their quarterback. Wilson actually had a ton of early looks, with 18 receptions on 33 targets in the first three games of his career. That said, those three games were played with Joe Flacco under center and a substantially different offensive approach.
Flacco threw the ball 59, 44, and 52 times in those three games, and pass-catching volume was inevitable. When Zach Wilson returned in Week Four, the offense became more run-focused. Garrett Wilson saw only 19 targets over his next four games, notching 10 grabs for 100 yards.
In the last two games, however, Wilson has seen the pendulum swing back in a positive direction, with 16 targets, 14 receptions, and 207 yards. In Week Eight, Wilson had six catches for 115 yards against the Patriots defense. He ranks second in the NFL in combined matchup win percentage (53.62%) among wideouts with at least 100 matchups against man or zone coverage. His quarterback also looks his way on 58.6% of the routes he runs.
Coach Belichick will naturally do his best to take away the Jets’ top weapon, but the high floor of targets makes me feel comfortable with this play. I would be thrilled if the defense limits any explosive long gainers from Wilson, but I do expect at least five grabs in the short to mid passing game.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 11: #1
Jets RB Michael Carter under 44.5 rushing yards – DraftKings Sportsbook (-125)
My top play of the day is the Patriots defense to hold Michael Carter to fewer than 44.5 rushing yards. Carter has exceeded that number only twice all season, once in their opening week against the Baltimore Ravens and again in their last game against the Buffalo Bills.
Rookie Breece Hall mostly carried the load for the Jets from weeks four through six, before going down with a season-ending knee injury in Week Seven. The Jets quickly brought in James Robinson ahead of the trade deadline to help fill the void. In the first Pats/Jets outing, Carter toted the rock seven times to Robinson’s five, after having only a few days to learn the playbook.
In Week Nine against the Buffalo Bills, Robinson’s usage saw an increase to 13 carries, already outpacing Carter’s 12. This sure looks like a backfield that is shifting and will soon see Robinson assume the Breece Hall role and Carter as a change-of-pace option. With the Jets also coming off of their bye week, Robinson has had plenty of time to grow more comfortable with the Jets offense.
On top of that, Zach Wilson threw the ball a season-high 41 times in the first game against the Patriots. That may again be the Jets’ approach on the road in a must-have divisional game. The Patriots defense has allowed an average of 84 yards per game to running backs this season, and only 49 to the Jets a mere two games ago.
Even if the Jets improve upon that last outing, I envision Robinson getting the lion’s share of running back carries and the Patriots holding Carter to fewer than 44.5 rushing yards, with relative ease.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.