Patriots coach Bill Belichick and I don’t seem to have a lot in common. He’s a Super Bowl winning head coach. I have three years of coaching youth football to my name. He’s notoriously dry and I like to think I’ve got a bit of a sense of humor. I could go on. However, we both believe in accountability.
Bill Belichick is generally not the coach to stand up in front of the press and blame the officiating or the weather for the outcome of the game. He famously gives credit to the opposing team and their coaching staff and reiterates his squad’s need to simply play better. That’s something we can all work towards. So, before I post my slate of player prop plays for the upcoming game, I am committed to accountability and reviewing last week’s results.
Before the game Monday, I predicted Rhamondre Stevenson would exceed 13.5 receiving yards (-120 odds), noting that I expected 25+ through the air. Game script certainly helped us on this one, as Bailey Zappe checked down to Stevenson repeatedly. The second-year back had a light day on the ground but finished with eight receptions for 59 yards. His second reception of the game was a 20 yarder down the right sideline to hit this number early in the second quarter. It’s always a nice sigh of relief to cover one of your wagers early.
Only a few plays later, we hit our second player prop of the evening with a Justin Fields interception (-175 odds). Coming into the game, I highlighted Justin Fields’ knack for throwing picks and the Patriots defense’s propensity for creating turnovers. On this one, Matthew Judon made a crucial tip of the pass and Myles Bryant picked it off. Judon, by the way, was a monster as usual, tallying 2.5 sacks in the first half alone.
But here’s where the accountability comes in. The lone miss on the evening was my top pick: Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions (+110 odds). I missed badly here. Jakobi did have a beautiful touchdown reception from Bailey Zappe in the second quarter, but the offensive momentum didn’t last much longer. The Patriots quarterback carousel completed 17 passes, and more than half (9) were to running backs on checkdown plays. Meyers finished with 34 yards on two receptions. To make matters worse, I specifically called out Kyler Gordon’s rough rookie season, and he made me look silly with an interception.
We finished the night 2-1. If you were betting the same unit size for each wager, you closed the night up .4 units. While the Patriots loss was a real bummer, any profit is always something to celebrate. Now, as Bill would say, we’re onto Week 8.
Here are my top prop bets for this week’s game against the New York Jets.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 8: #3
Patriots TE Hunter Henry over 2.5 receptions (+105) – DraftKings Sportsbook
There has been some controversy over the last few days regarding the consistency in offensive playcalling. Some Patriots fans have noticed that a Zappe-led offense more closely resembles the one that Jones starred in last season. This week, I expect Matt Patricia will do all he can to put Mac in a position to succeed. The coaching staff needs Jones to play with unrattled confidence after Patriots fans booed him at Gillette on Monday, and the best way to do that may be to simplify the playbook a hair.
In that 2021 Patriots offense, Hunter Henry was a star. He totaled 50 receptions, 603 yards, and nine touchdowns. This year, he has only 14 receptions, 168 yards, and one score through seven games. That said, before Monday night, he had been trending in the right direction, with four receptions in both Weeks 5 and 6.
The Jets pass defense has been solid this year, allowing only 209.4 yards per game, ranking them 13th in the league. In the last two weeks, however, opposing offenses may have found a hole to exploit. In Weeks 6 and 7, the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos have targeted tight ends a whopping 26 times, resulting in 19 receptions and 171 yards. Robert Tonyan brought in nine balls for 90 yards against this Jets defense just two weeks ago.
I believe Jones will see the field more quickly this week, and work to get the ball out fast. Henry will be a beneficiary; I expect four or five receptions for 40+ yards on Sunday.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 8: #2
Jets QB Zach Wilson over 11.5 rushing yards (-120) – DraftKings Sportsbook
The key to betting player props is really betting on game script. Do you expect a defensive showdown laden with turnovers and sloppy football, or an offensive shootout where the defense mostly takes the day off? Long, sustained drives that emphasize the ground game and short passes, or an offense that pushes the ball downfield in search of chunk plays?
I expect Sunday’s game to feature strong defensive efforts from both sides and two strong running back committees. The game could very well come down to quarterback play and which second-year passer makes fewer mistakes. The Patriots defense is tied for third in the NFL with 13 takeaways and they have accomplished that with a strong pass rush that ranks sixth in the league with 21 sacks.
That pursuit of the quarterback can have its drawbacks, as we saw Monday night. Overpursuit and blown contain on a few plays allowed Bears quarterback Justin Fields to run for 82 yards on 14 carries, calmly extending drives on third down. Zach Wilson isn’t the same threat on the ground as Fields, but he’s plenty athletic and has shown the propensity to tuck the ball and go.
He’s coming off a game where he carried four times for 24 yards. Last year, in 13 starts, Wilson had five games north of the 11.5 number. In Week 2 last year, Wilson carried the ball three times for 19 yards against this Patriots defense. I believe Wilson will carry the ball three or four times on Sunday for around 30 yards.
Top 3 Player Prop Bets for Week 8: #1
Patriots LB Matthew Judon over .75 sacks (+105) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Wilson will need to run, in part due to the play of Matthew Judon. Judon is having another fantastic season, with 8.5 sacks through 7 games, good enough for the league lead.
This week, he will get the Jets offensive line. The Jets rank 21st in team pass block win rate, and just lost the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season. Due to several other injuries to his teammates, Vera-Tucker most recently played right tackle on an offensive line set to see its fourth different group of starters. Cedric Ogbuehi is set to make his first start of the season for New York, the fifth city he’s called home since entering the league in 2015. When lined up on that side, I expect Judon to take full advantage of that matchup.
On the other side, Duane Brown will be starting at left tackle. While Brown has not allowed a sack yet in 2022, his best days are behind him. Last season with Seattle, Brown allowed eight sacks, which was tied for ninth most in the NFL. Brown has been a top-tier tackle in this league and is certainly no slouch even still, but in this one, I expect the Patriots defense will give him all he can handle. And that starts with Matthew Judon.
Judon has been held without a sack only once this year, in Week 6 against Cleveland. In Week 5 against Detroit, he notched two, and last game against Chicago, he topped that with two and a half. With the Jets offensive line in a state of adjustment, I believe Judon is primed for another 2-sack game.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.