Week Eight was a good one for the Patriots, getting back on track in a key divisional matchup against the Jets. Mac Jones was back under center, Rhamondre Stevenson was dominant once again, and the defense exposed Zach Wilson for being… well, Zach Wilson. My recommended player prop wagers, on the other hand, did not go as smoothly.
Unlike in Week 7 when we went 2-1, last week was an ugly one at 0-3. We needed three receptions out of Hunter Henry, and he delivered us one. We needed Zach Wilson to rush for 12 yards, and he scampered for a whopping two. Matthew Judon was blanked in the sack column for only the second time all season.
As an added insult to injury, I had nearly gone with a repeat wagering of Stevenson receptions, while doubling down on my Jakobi Meyers miss from Week Seven. I changed my mind, in favor of some fresh takes in last week’s article. From now on, I’ll stick with my gut, as stale as the play gets. Because money never gets old and that’s what most of you are here for, right?
On that note, let’s get it. Here are my top player prop wagers for Week Nine’s game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 9: #4
Patriots WR Tyquan Thornton under 34.5 receiving yards (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s not often a bettor would be happy to lose a wager, but I would be thrilled to lose this one. I believe rookie receiver Tyquan Thornton is oozing potential, but this line is simply too high. Thornton saw a season-high 61 snaps last week after DeVante Parker left the game with a knee sprain after just the first offensive play. However, he turned in only one reception for 13 yards on two targets. In his first four games, Thornton is averaging two receptions and 19 yards per game, with a high of 37 yards in Week Six.
With DeVante Parker ruled out of Week Nine, this is a great opportunity for Thornton to take that next step. The expectation is an uptick in usage. As a fan, I would love if he turned in a productive outing. As a bettor, I’m not sure I see it this week.
The Pats stood pat at the trade deadline, hanging onto both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Both receivers were widely discussed in trade chatter around the league, but both remain in Foxboro. They are likely to have at least some utility to the offense for the rest of the year. Last week, Kendrick Bourne saw 54 out of 78 possible snaps, while Agholor logged 19. I could see both being a larger part of the offense this week, eating into Thornton’s snap share.
Again, I love Tyquan Thornton. I want to be wrong here (I also hate betting any under), but he’s got to show me first.
Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 9: #3 and #2
Colts WR Alec Pierce over 2.5 receptions (-120) and over 28.5 receiving yards (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook
We’ve got a two-for-one here. Colts second round rookie receiver Alec Pierce has had a very nice start to his NFL career. With 38 targets in seven games played, he has hauled in 24 receptions for 373 yards and one touchdown. Operating almost exclusively as an outside option, Pierce has an average depth of target of 12.66 yards, ranking him 10th in the league among wideouts with the same number of targets or more.
Not the biggest threat to do his damage after the catch, Pierce is productive by running a solid volume of medium to long routes. Excluding Week One where he posted a goose-egg, Pierce has had three or more receptions in each of his other six games played, averaging 62 yards per game since Week Three. His lowest total came in Week Seven where he totaled 37 yards on three grabs.
I do recognize that he may be in store for a regression the rest of the way with Sam Ehlinger under center, but last week it didn’t quite seem that way. While Ehlinger only attempted 23 passes, five of those went to Pierce, who had three receptions for 65 yards on the day. The Patriots defense, while opportunistic in the pass game, do give up their share of yardage through the air. The Patriots are third in the league in interceptions with 10, but rank 20th in passing yardage allowed. In Week Eight against the Jets, the Patriots somehow allowed Zach Wilson to throw for 355 yards (on a less than 50% completion percentage, in classic Wilson fashion).
With Jonathan Taylor set to miss this week’s game, Michael Pittman remains as the Colts’ most dangerous offensive weapon. As such, Bill Belichick will undoubtedly scheme to take him out of the game. With attention on Pittman, I expect five or six targets for Pierce, resulting in three or four receptions for 50 yards or so.
Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 9: #1
Patriots QB Mac Jones over 19.5 completions (+105) – DraftKings Sportsbook
Mac Jones wasn’t as bad last week as it may have looked at first glance. He didn’t get a heck of a lot of help from his offensive line, and he still turned in 24 completions, 194 yards, and a touchdown against a very talented Jets defense. The Colts also have a solid defense, boasting DeForest Buckner, Yannick Ngakoue, Zaire Franklin, and a familiar face in Stephon Gilmore.
Even so, Jones has thrown for at least 20 completions in every game he’s played this season, the exception being the game against Chicago where he was pulled after only six attempts. Last season, Jones threw for at least 20 completions in 11 out of 17 games. In Week 14 last season, he threw 45 passes against this Colts defense, completing 26 for 299 yards and a pair of scores.
On the other side of the equation, the Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed 20 or more completions in every game this season, with the exception of the two against the Tennessee Titans run-centered offense. Ryan Tannehill had 13 and 17 completions in those outings, while all-world running back Derrick Henry toted the rock 30 and 22 times, respectively. Outside of the Titans, the Colts have allowed the likes of Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence (x2), and Taylor Heinicke to beat the 19.5 number.
I believe Mac Jones will continue to get back on track this weekend, leading the Patriots to their second straight victory, and will do so while completing 22 or 23 passes.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.