Week Eight was a good one for the Patriots, getting back on track in a key divisional matchup against the Jets. Mac Jones was back under center, Rhamondre Stevenson was dominant once again, and the defense exposed Zach Wilson for being… well, Zach Wilson. My recommended player prop wagers, on the other hand, did not go as smoothly.
Unlike in Week 7 when we went 2-1, last week was an ugly one at 0-3. We needed three receptions out of Hunter Henry, and he delivered us one. We needed Zach Wilson to rush for 12 yards, and he scampered for a whopping two. Matthew Judon was blanked in the sack column for only the second time all season.
As an added insult to injury, I had nearly gone with a repeat wagering of Stevenson receptions, while doubling down on my Jakobi Meyers miss from Week Seven. I changed my mind, in favor of some fresh takes in last week’s article. From now on, I’ll stick with my gut, as stale as the play gets. Because money never gets old and that’s what most of you are here for, right?
On that note, let’s get it. Here are my top player prop wagers for Week Nine’s game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 9: #4
Patriots WR Tyquan Thornton under 34.5 receiving yards (-115) – DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s not often a bettor would be happy to lose a wager, but I would be thrilled to lose this one. I believe rookie receiver Tyquan Thornton is oozing potential, but this line is simply too high. Thornton saw a season-high 61 snaps last week after DeVante Parker left the game with a knee sprain after just the first offensive play. However, he turned in only one reception for 13 yards on two targets. In his first four games, Thornton is averaging two receptions and 19 yards per game, with a high of 37 yards in Week Six.
With DeVante Parker ruled out of Week Nine, this is a great opportunity for Thornton to take that next step. The expectation is an uptick in usage. As a fan, I would love if he turned in a productive outing. As a bettor, I’m not sure I see it this week.
The Pats stood pat at the trade deadline, hanging onto both Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Both receivers were widely discussed in trade chatter around the league, but both remain in Foxboro. They are likely to have at least some utility to the offense for the rest of the year. Last week, Kendrick Bourne saw 54 out of 78 possible snaps, while Agholor logged 19. I could see both being a larger part of the offense this week, eating into Thornton’s snap share.
Again, I love Tyquan Thornton. I want to be wrong here (I also hate betting any under), but he’s got to show me first.