Outside of Bills, are Jets or Dolphins bigger threats to Patriots?
While the Bills will almost certainly present the biggest divisional challenge to the Patriots, who’s more dangerous between the Jets and the Dolphins?
There’s no question that the Buffalo Bills loom as the biggest threat to breaking the New England Patriots‘ longtime stranglehold on the AFC East this season.
Vegas oddsmakers recently revealed the fact they see Buffalo, not New England, as the favorite to win the AFC East this year. While the decision certainly can be justified due to the uncertainty at quarterback for the Patriots, it’s still a major slap in the face to Bill Belichick and a very talented New England roster.
Regardless, Buffalo finished just two games behind the Pats in the standings last year. They lost their first game at home against New England by only six points and then fell to the Patriots on the road at the end of the season by seven points. The Bills have since added dynamic weapon Stefon Diggs to what was already the best receiving core in the division this offseason, while the Pats lost Tom Brady.
Outside of Buffalo though, are the New York Jets or the Miami Dolphins bigger challenges to the Patriots in 2020?
For comparison’s sake when it comes to stats, here’s where both teams finished last year:
New York Jets
7-9 (third place in AFC East; missed playoffs)
No. 32 overall in total yards of offense
No. 31 overall in total points of offense
No. 29 overall in passing yards of offense
No. 31 overall in rushing yards of offense
No. 7 overall in total yards allowed on defense
No. 16 in total points allowed on defense
No. 17 in passing yards allowed on defense
No. 2 in rushing yards allowed on defense
Miami Dolphins
5-11 (fourth place in AFC East; missed playoffs)
No. 27 overall in total yards of offense
No. 25 overall in total points of offense
No. 12 overall in passing yards of offense
No. 32 overall in rushing yards of offense
No. 30 in total yards allowed on defense
No. 32 in total points allowed on defense
No. 26 in passing yards allowed on defense
No. 27 in rushing yards allowed on defense
******
What these numbers say is that the Jets essentially had one of the worst offenses in the league last year with a well-above average defense, especially when it came to defending against the run.
The Dolphins had a slightly better offense than the Jets (one that was strong through the air but terrible on the ground) paired with one of the worst defenses in the league.
On paper, there’s not a whole lot to like on either roster.
New York’s best players on offense (Le’Veon Bell) and defense (Jamal Adams) were ineffective and disgruntled last season, respectively. The Jets’ quarterback, Sam Darnold, battled mono and then bad play when he finally returned, and their second-best wideout (Robby Anderson) left in free agency.
The Dolphins have finally gotten something from their best offensive player, DeVante Parker, after four seasons of being a relative bust (he was taken No. 14 overall back in 2015). After never finishing a season with more than 57 receptions, 744 yards, or four touchdowns, Parker had a career year with Fitzpatrick last season (72 receptions for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns).
The problem if you’re Miami though is there isn’t a whole lot to like outside of Parker on offense, and the defense was understandably pretty lousy last year.
Let’s also take a look at the trends for both teams in 2019.
Consider that the Fins started off 1-7 while getting outscored 256-103. Miami then went 4-4 and lowered that scoring deficit to 238-203. They split their season series with the Jets, and they also picked up quality wins against the Patriots (Week 17), Colts (Week 10), and Eagles (Week 13).
The Jets also started off 1-7, and they were outscored by their competition 211-96. New York then went 6-2 the rest of the way while outscoring their competition 180-148. Darnold went 7-6 across his 13 starts, while Luke Falk went 0-3. The Jets’ best wins came against the Cowboys (Week 6), Steelers (Week 16), and Bills (Week 17).
Based off those trends, the stats, and the finishes of both teams in 2019, you’d think the Jets are better positioned to challenge the Patriots than the Dolphins right?
We’re not so sure.
Miami seems like it’s an ascendant team right now. They have a league-leading 14 picks in this month’s draft, including three in the first round.
Brian Flores is widely regarded as a more promising head coach than Adam Gase right now, and we’re not convinced the Jets are going to be any better on offense this season — whereas it’d be surprising if the Dolphins weren’t much improved on both sides of the ball.
Next. This might be a make-or-break year for Sony Michel already. dark
Only time will tell, but for now, it looks like the Dolphins might be a bigger threat to the Patriots than the Jets in the AFC East this season and beyond. Don’t forget also that Miami played New England tough at the end of the year, whereas New York got blown out twice.