Clay Harbor: Forecasting 2016 production
Welcome to our ninth installment in a 12-part series in which we are forecasting the 2016 production of each of the New England Patriots’ offseason veteran additions. Today, we’re projecting the debut season of tight end Clay Harbor in a Patriots uniform.
In case you missed them, here are three recent installments in the series:
Forecasting EJ Biggers’ 2016 production
Forecasting Donald Brown’s 2016 production
Forecasting Terrance Knighton’s 2016 production
The skinny: The Patriots signed Harbor to a two-year, $4 million maximum deal at the back end of free agency. Considering the amount of guaranteed money and multi-year nature of the deal, it’s clear that the Patriots plan to keep Harbor around for the foreseeable future. After all, Bill Belichick compared him to Marcel Reece because of his ability to lineup in different places.
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Pessimistic forecast: Harbor is one of the major disappointments of Patriots training camp, failing to live up to that generous pay day he received in free agency. Of course, it’s unreasonable to expect Harbor to unseat Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett at the top of the depth chart, but he is outclassed by returners Michael Williams and A.J. Derby in the dog days of summer.
Pessimistic stats projection: Cut in training camp
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Optimistic forecast: Harbor plays so well in training camp that he not only safely makes the roster as the No. 3 tight end, but also pushes Bennett for snaps in two-tight end sets. When and if injuries hit Gronk and/or Bennett, Harbor steps into an expanded role and doesn’t disappointment. By the end of the regular season, Harbor is viewed as one of the more sly signings in 2016 free agency.
Optimistic stats projection: 33 receptions, 380 yards, three touchdowns
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Realistic forecast: Harbor makes the final roster, but only after the most intense training camp of his life holding off Derby for the No. 3 slot on the depth chart. As the season progresses, Harbor is used more as a versatile, Reece-like blocker than a receiving threat, although he is up to the job of filling-in for an injured Gronk or Bennett. All in all, Harbor is a useful asset in the Patriots’ offensive tool kit, but he’s not going to be on the fantasy football radar by any means.
Realistic stats projection: 18 receptions, 165 yards, two touchdowns
Next: Revisiting and grading Patriots’ 2015 NFL Draft picks
Stay tuned here on Musket Fire for coverage on every twist and turn in the Patriots’ offseason.