New England Patriots Free Agency: Predicting the Game Plan

The New England Patriots have cleared up a large amount of salary cap space already this offseason in order to be ready for Patriots free agency as well as prepping for their 2017 free agents. Among their priority players to re-sign on defense are defensive ends Chandler Jones and Jabaal Sheard, linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins, and their young starting cornerback duo Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler.

Despite a trip to the AFC Championship for a fifth straight season, the Patriots have a number of holes in the roster to fill via trades, in free agency and through the draft this offseason: they need to shore up the skill positions on offense primarily with needs at wide receiver, running back, and tight end.

The status of the offensive line–even with the return of legendary coach Dante Scarnecchia–is still to be determined: they need a inexpensive tackle in order to upgrade from Marcus Cannon via free agency or the draft; also, they have numerous options on the interior offensive line but an inexpensive veteran may be an easy way to upgrade the talent there while the younger players develop.

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One position on offense where the Patriots are set is at quarterback: future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady is still in place (do not sweat the NFL appeal of Brady’s victory over the league in getting his suspension overturned) and has been signed to a two-year extension on his current contract keeping him in New England for the foreseeable future.

Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo still has two seasons to go on this deal and with the slightest threat of a suspension for Brady will not go anywhere anytime soon. Unlike in Denver who is currently dealing with the retirement of a veteran quarterback Peyton Manning and the free agency of their next-generation quarterback Brock Osweiler with no franchise tag to keep him from leaving, the Patriots have set themselves up to make sure they are not in the same situation.

The Patriots are in position to add a running back via free agency this season. The market has a number of veterans who may be available at the prices Bill Belichick prefers if he chooses not to address the position via the NFL draft. Veteran LeGarrette Blount may not have played his last game in New England yet but if he returns to Foxborough, MA it will be on the team’s terms and not likely to be a big payday like he is searching for on the open market.

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At tight end, New England continues to search for a complement to their All-Pro Rob Gronkowski. Former Buffalo Bill Scott Chandler was the latest addition to the roster for 2015 at the position but his struggles made him a one year rental. Chandler struggled getting in rhythm in the offense and as he dropped passes throughout the year Brady lost confidence in him and by the playoffs he was an afterthought. Since the shocking arrest and release of Aaron Hernandez before the 2013 season the Patriots will be looking to find another tight end to add to the roster through free agency or the NFL draft.

At wide receiver, New England ended the Brandon LaFell experiment after just two seasons with his release after the 2015 season. In retrospect, the team should have gone a mile further and signed Emmanuel Sanders instead of LaFell. New England first signed him to an offer sheet which was matched by the Steelers when Sanders was a restricted free agent before the 2013 season. The next season when Sanders was an unrestricted free agent the Patriots failed to make an attractive enough offer and allowed a wide receiver who would have been a perfect fit in the offense go to Denver to get his Super Bowl ring as he blossomed into a Pro Bowl wide receiver.

LaFell did have a very strong first season in New England and the team would not have won the Super Bowl in 2014 without his strong play. Last season his foot injury and drops led to a loss of confidence in him as Brady tired of forcing the ball to LaFell. By the end of the 2015 season he had been passed by Danny Amendola and Keshawn Martin at wide receiver and it was crystal clear that there was no way LaFell was going to be on the roster in 2016 with his salary cap charge.

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The next domino likely to fall at wide receiver will be Danny Amendola. Amendola emerged for the second straight season as a top target for quarterback Tom Brady in the New England offense. Amendola first earned the trust of Brady at the end of 2014 and has grown into a vital part of the offense. However, his very high salary cap number makes him a target for renegotiation this offseason and he could be cut if he is not willing to work with the team to lower his salary cap charge again.

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There are a number of intriguing free agents this offseason at running back for the New England Patriots to consider to add to the roster. Chicago’s Matt Forte is a running back who seems to be a perfect fit in the Josh McDaniels offense with his ability to run the ball 15-20 times a game and also contribute in the passing game. However his expected price tag of upwards of $8 million per season is not one that will likely fly in New England. The price tag of Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin will also likely make New England look elsewhere.

In addition,the division rival New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have free agent running backs of their own who could be less expensive and attractive to New England. Bill Belichick is well aware of the impact of the hard running style of Chris Ivory who would be a perfect complement to the Patriots fast-paced offense as an upgrade to Blount. Miami’s Lamar Miller looks more and more  likely each day to re-sign in Miami but is another intriguing running back who can be a bell cow as well as a threat in the passing game. Both also improve New England and weaken a division rival.

At tight end the pickings are thin in free agency. The market is flooded with disappointments such as Ladarius Green, Jared Cook, Jermaine Gresham, Coby Fleener. Veterans Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, and former Patriot Ben Watson  are among the best players available for the Patriots to target as a short term rental at the position. New England has been shy drafting tight ends in the draft bringing in role players as undrafted free agents, via trades and off the scrap heap.

While the fans have clamored each spring for the Patriots to draft one of the bigger names on the draft board at tight end, the Patriots instead have stayed away from the players in the draft and only invested a late round pick in AJ Derby last year. Derby is a quarterback out of Iowa with just one year of experience at tight end. Derby was expected to see a lot of action in training camp but he was shut down after one training camp practice and missed the entire preseason and regular season to injury. Whether he even makes it to training camp or not is a big question mark and he is certainly not expected to contribute in 2016.

The Patriots are also in need of adding more talent at wide receiver. Keshawn Martin was a nice find off the scrap heap to compliment Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman as a shifty slot receiver. Aaron Dobson will likely return as he is in a make-or-break season but returns at an affordable price which should keep him on the roster through training camp. With Martin and Dobson as options on the outside the position again needs to be addressed.

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Whether through the draft or targeting one of the few quality free agent wide receivers on the market the Patriots need another passing weapon to help Brady in 2016. Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu of the Cincinnati Bengals are two of the top wide receivers on the market and the Patriots also saw Rueben Randle of the New York Giants up close last year (and Tom Coughlan is likely to give Belichick the full background on him).

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Two names to keep in mind are Travis Benjamin of the Browns and Kamar Aiken of the Ravens (who is a restricted free agent). Aiken started his career in New England and would at least have some familiarity with the offense while the coaching staff should be aware of him. Benjamin is a speed threat who has blossomed into a solid complementary receiver. Never doubt the Cleveland connection after former GM Mike Lombardi brought Dion Lewis and Jabaal Sheard to New England.

Fan favorite Brian Tyms will not be returning to New England after an injury filled 2015 that saw him end up on injured reserve. The Patriots may be looking in free agency for a wide receiver who has been in a scheme that does not maximize his talents such as Wes Welker in 2007 with Miami. A few names to keep in mind in that regard are division rival Buffalo Bills wide receiver Chris Hogan (a restricted free agent) and Miami Dolphins outside receiver Rishard Matthews. Belichick is familiar with both and they at least have upside which makes them more attractive than veterans such as Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Nate Washington, Lance Moore and Roddy White

The Patriots have a number of moves to make this offseason to address their lack of playmakers on offense behind Gronkowski, Edelman, and Lewis. However, the moves to free up money this offseason is not intended to spend wildly in free agency but instead to protect their young defensive core from hitting free agency in 2017. Expect most of the money that is available under the salary cap to go towards limiting their key free agents for next season.

The New England Patriots will never win the offseason free agency grades. Like Buffalo who just released defensive end Mario Williams this offseason after he was the centerpiece of their free agency spending just a few years ago. The Miami Dolphins have made numerous trips to the free agent pool in the offseason to try and catch New England. This offseason they are already dealing with the massive cap hit of Ndamukong Suh who they signed just last year and now are sending more potential dead money into the future.

New England is intelligent enough not to fall into that trap. They know better than to put all their eggs in the free agency basket each season and they will again look to make smaller moves to bolster skill position players. This offseason the Patriots need to find a few skill position players who can help out on offense and start locking up their top young defensive players so there is not an exodus in 2017. If they can do this, the Patriots should be in a strong position to get back to the Super Bowl in 2016.

Next: Ranking the Top 22 Free Agency Targets for the Pats

Stay tuned here on Musket Fire for coverage on every twist and turn in the Patriots’ offseason.