The Buffalo Bills were considered heavy favorites to retake the AFC East crown this season, and through the first seven weeks of 2026, all the analytics sites and prognosticators appear to be on the right track.
The Bills, fresh off their early Week 7 bye, enter this weekend’s slate leading the division with a 5-1 record. The Patriots, after losing last Thursday night’s road game against the Chicago Bears, are 4-3.
New England currently holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo, though, and has a home game against the Bills in Week 13.
Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon recently planted his flag on Buffalo holding off the Patriots and winning the AFC East for the sixth time in seven years.
“Keep in mind that the Bills have defeated the Patriots in December in each of the last six seasons (with four of those coming in Foxborough),” Gagnon wrote.
The reality here is that the Bills are an imperfect team, too, whose five wins have come against teams with a combined 12-21 record. The NFL world crushed the Patriots’ 14-win season last year over their historically easy schedule, but the combined win percentage of the opponents they beat was .370; Buffalo’s is .364 so far in 2026.
The division race is far from over. The Patriots have 10 games left. The Bills have 11. Both teams have some tough matchups and some potential speed bumps.
Here’s a prediction on how things could shake out, starting with Week 8.
The Patriots have a realistic path to catch the Bills and steal the AFC East
Week 8: Patriots at Dolphins; Bills vs. Baltimore
New England
Early-season road games at Miami are never easy, but this spot favors the Patriots. The Dolphins have one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and rank 28th in defensive success rate, per SumerSports. No defense has produced fewer sacks (6) and only three teams have generated fewer takeaways (5).
On the other side of the ball, Malik Willis ranks 28th in quarterback rating (77.1) and has only thrown for four touchdowns. He’s a threat on the ground, as is red-hot running back Ollie Gordon, but the Patriots should have no problem putting this one away.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 5-3)
Buffalo
The Ravens are expected to get Lamar Jackson back this week, which is poor timing for the Bills. They’ll be at home, but their defense will have its hands full against Baltimore’s full gambit: Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers.
The Bills have actually been worse than the Dolphins in defensive success rate, ranking 30th. The Ravens have been a brutal second-half team as of late, though, and this feels like one of those games where Josh Allen wills the Bills to victory late.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 6-1)
Week 9: Patriots vs. Packers; Bills at Minnesota (MNF)
New England
Only two teams enter Week 8 with a winning record and a negative point differential — the Packers and the Browns. Green Bay struggles to run the football and might have the league’s worst offensive line. Advantage Patriots at home.
Verdict: Win (projected record 6-3)
Buffalo
Buffalo lost a game like this last season, on the road against a ridiculous defense in Houston. Brian Flores will have an extra day to prepare, and while Minnesota’s offense has been brutal to start the season, the coaching mismatch gives the Vikings a slight edge.
Verdict: Loss (projected record 6-2)
Week 10: Patriots vs. Detroit (in Germany); Bills at Jets
New England
This is a tough one to predict given the neutral site, but at least it’s not being played at Ford Field. The Lions, per usual under Dan Campbell, are giving up a lot of points on defense (26th-most in football) and are hyperaggressive on offense.
The Patriots have the cover corners and speed at linebacker to get the Lions’ potent offense off the field.
Verdict: Win (projected record 7-3)
Buffalo
The Jets have some talent, but their coaching staff severely limits their potential against a good opponent like Buffalo.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 7-2)
Week 11: Patriots BYE; Bills vs. Miami
Buffalo
The Bills should have little trouble in this one. Few quarterbacks own a team as much as Allen owns the Dolphins (13-3 in his career).
Verdict: Win (projected record: 8-2)
Week 12: Patriots at Chargers (SNF); Bills vs. Chiefs (TNF)
New England
Who knows what the Chargers will look like after the trade deadline. The guess here is that they won’t look very formidable, especially with the Patriots coming off their bye week.
Verdict: Win (projected record 8-3)
Buffalo
As the Patriots proved last year, two things can be true: You can be a great team that takes advantage of an easy schedule. That’s a fair way to describe the Bills’ 5-1 start this year.
The Chiefs? Their wins came against the Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and Chargers before last week’s ugly loss to the Seahawks. The combined winning percentage of the opponents they've beaten is 0.333, which is worse than Buffalo's — and that includes the 5-2 Broncos.
The jury is very much out on Patrick Mahomes and crew being back.
Verdict: Win (projected record 9-2)
Week 13: Bills at Patriots
Let’s circle back to Gagnon’s quote about the Bills winning in Foxboro for a minute.
Fair is fair. The Bills have had some success at Gillette Stadium against the Patriots in recent seasons. But they’ve been far from dominant in those games.
Buffalo won 24-21 in 2024 during Drake Maye’s rookie year, near the end of the Jerod Mayo debacle. Last year, the Bills trailed 21-0 in the first half. Credit Sean McDermott for scheming up a defense that slowed the Patriots’ passing game and allowed Allen to throw the Superman cape on and pull out a win, 35-31, but that wasn’t exactly how Buffalo drew it up.
New England has and continues to be a tough matchup for the Bills.
Verdict: Patriots win (projected records: 9-3)
Week 14: Vikings at Patriots (TNF); Bills at Packers (SNF)
New England
The Vikings are a tough matchup for anybody, and Maye could have a tough time deciphering Minnesota's pressure packages on a short week. This will be a December game played outdoors, though, which should put the Patriots on the right side of a coin flip.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 10-3)
Buffalo
The Packers should have Micah Parsons back for this one, but will they have enough juice to keep up with Allen and company? Probably not.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 10-3)
Week 15: Patriots at Chiefs (MNF); Bills vs. Bears (Saturday night)
New England
Maye’s first trip to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Chiefs will come on a Monday night in mid-December. This should be a fun one that comes down to a few drives (and penalty flags) in the fourth quarter.
Verdict: Loss (projected record: 10-4)
Buffalo
The Patriots had some issues with Ben Johnson’s dynamic offense and Dennis Allen’s wild third-down blitz packages. Buffalo’s defense under Jim Leonhard will have to improve big-time to contend with Johnson and Caleb Williams. The Bears are a problem.
Verdict: Loss (projected record: 10-4)
Week 16: Patriots at Jets; Bills at Broncos (Christmas Day)
New England
The Jets could be in full-on tank mode and already starting their next head coach search at this point. Next.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 11-4)
Buffalo
Tough matchup. The Broncos are far from a juggernaut, but neither is Buffalo, and Denver might be the toughest place to win a big football game in the league.
Verdict: Loss (projected record: 10-5)
Week 17: Patriots vs. Broncos; Bills at Dolphins
New England
Both teams should be up for this one. It’s a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game and the Broncos will want to prove that last year’s loss in the snow with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback was a fluke.
Denver’s defense is elite and the Broncos have the better run game right now. Give the Broncos a slight edge in another one that comes down to the wire.
Verdict: Loss (projected record: 11-5)
Buffalo
A road trip to Florida to play the Dolphins in January is always… oh, nevermind. Bills by a billion.
Verdict: Win (projected record: 11-5)
Week 18: Dolphins at Patriots; Jets at Bills
These games should be nothing more than a couple of speed bumps for a pair of playoff qualifiers. But they could be meaningful games with first place in the division potentially up for grabs.
Verdict: Patriots and Bills both win, finishing with matching 12-5 records, and the Patriots win the AFC East by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Hey, this is just one (completely unbiased) opinion, but the underlying point is pretty simple. The Patriots aren’t a perfect team right now. The Bills aren’t, either. No one should be mistaking a one-game lead in the win column as some type of insurmountable gap entering November.
There’s a lot of football still to be played.
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