What Mike Vrabel has accomplished in short order with the New England Patriots has been remarkable. Now 14 games into his first season as head coach, fans now know exactly what to expect on Sundays: A team that starts on time and often imposes its will on opponents early and often.
Entering Week 16, Vrabel’s Patriots lead the NFL in first-half scoring, averaging 16.7 points per game, according to Team Rankings. That trend was on full display in Sunday’s tough loss to Buffalo, with New England racing out to an early 21-0 lead; in their previous game, in Week 13, the Patriots surged to a 30-7 lead over the New York Giants in the second quarter.
When it comes to starting games, the Patriots have become the envy of the NFL in 2025.
Finishing the game? That’s been an entirely different story, and it’s leaving Patriots fans with an uneasy feeling with the start of an anticipated playoff run now just around the corner.
When you flip the stat to second-half scoring, New England falls from first to 21st. And after Sunday’s loss, Patriots fans won’t be surprised to see who's leading the league in that category.
That would be Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, who average 17.3 second-half points per game; they proved it at the Patriots’ expense in Sunday’s showdown at Gillette Stadium, outscoring Drake Maye and company 28-7 over the final two quarters.
Patriots' second-half warning signs keep flashing, and Mike Vrabel hasn't yet figured them out
The Patriots squandered a 24-7 lead in the second half on Sunday — and they did it rather quickly.
Vrabel’s defense, playing without middle linebacker Robert Spillane, was obviously overmatched as Allen and the Bills got rolling. But the offense's knack for losing its rhythm after halftime reared its ugly head yet again.
New England ran just 18 total offensive plays in Sunday’s second half. The Bills ran 17 offensive plays in the third quarter alone.
For all the hype surrounding Allen, the NFL’s reigning MVP, and Maye, the ascending young QB who's become this year's trendy pick, New England’s best work came via the ground game. Electric running back TreVeyon Henderson scored on a pair of 50-plus yard runs, and New England finished with 246 rushing yards on 25 attempts overall. Maye finished with a season-low 155 passing yards.
The problem on Sunday? They didn’t stick with what was working, most likely due to the pressure posed by the QB on the other side. After Buffalo opened the third quarter with a way-too-easy touchdown drive, the Patriots went three-and-out.
When Maye got the ball back, suddenly leading just 24-21, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels called eight consecutive pass plays — with No. 8 resulting in an interception on a deep throw to Mack Hollins down the sideline.
Circling back to the big picture: Maye has been fantastic this season, and the Patriots are way closer to the Bills than anyone expected. You could make an easy case that these two teams are dead even right now, given New England’s win in Buffalo in Week 5, and some painfully obvious breaks that fell the Bills’ way to help them escape Foxboro with a wild win.
The harsh reality, though, is that Maye still only has one official fourth-quarter comeback on his resume, and that was Week 2 this year against the Miami Dolphins; the Patriots trailed 27-23 on the road with 7:06 remaining — and won the game thanks to Antonio Gibson’s 90-yard kickoff return, and a 53-yard Andy Borregales field goal that added cushion for an eventual six-point victory.
More on this in this week's mailbag (keep sending in questions!)
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) December 16, 2025
But a slightly concerning trend.
Drake Maye since Week 9:
First half of games: +0.35 EPA/play, 57.1% success rate, 73.2% completion percentage, 927 passing yards, seven passing TDs, 1 INT, 9.6 Y/A
Second half of… https://t.co/Rut6LS4rK1
Maye hasn’t yet thrown on the Superman cape like Allen and fully taken over a game. To be fair, the Patriots have been so good this season, he hasn’t faced a ton of adverse situations.
But from the QB to the play caller, to everyone on the field, this entire offense’s tendency to lose steam over the final two quarters does not bode well for January football. Vrabel’s ability to fix it — starting with Sunday’s game in Baltimore — could be the difference between a first-round exit and a sustained playoff run this year.