The New England Patriots will face the No. 7-ranked Chargers on Sunday night in their first playoff game since their dismal 2021 showing against the Bills.
The game will mark the second Patriots home playoff game since their 2018 divisional-round win over the Chargers. After a 41-28 victory, New England would beat the Chiefs in the AFC Championship before claiming their seventh Super Bowl against the L.A. Rams.
New England is a 3.5-point favorite against the Chargers, but to cover that spread and ensure they move on to the Divisional Round, they'll need to be at their best. More specifically, these players will need to be at their best to better the AFC's 11-win No. 7 seed.
These three players will need to put on a show to ensure a Patriots win against the Chargers
WR Stefon Diggs
It shouldn't come as a major surprise that New England's first 1,000-yard receiver since 2019 will be a key factor in their upcoming playoff game, but New England will need their best to be at their best. New England is 5-0 when Diggs has 100+ yards this season, scoring 32.4 PPG. In all other games, New England scores 27.3 per contest.
The Chargers employ a sort of "cornerback by committee" on defense. Donte Jackson is the supposed No. 1, with Tarheeb Still, Cam Hart, and Benjamin St-Juste behind him. They are all generally at the same level: none are great, but none are major liabilities. Derwin James has also played extensively in the slot.
Diggs should be able to win the majority of his matchups when covered by any of the Chargers' four traditional cornerbacks, while getting the better of James in the slot will be key to New England's success.
ED K'Lavon Chaisson
The Chargers have one of the worst offensive lines in football. Rashawn Slater has been out all season, and Joe Alt has played just six games all year. PFF ranks Mekhi Becton as the league's 79th-best guard out of 81, while Bradley Bozeman is ranked the league's worst center.
Their 3.5 sacks allowed per game is the second most in the league, and Justin Herbert ranks 11th in the league in scramble percentage. Only Geno Smith has been sacked more.
In games in which K'Lavon Chaisson has at least a half sack, opposing offenses score just 17.6 PPG. In all other games, opponents scored 19.7 a game.
From November 10th to January 3rd, New England went without a sack from Chaisson. In that span, New England averaged 1.5 sacks per game. During all other games this year, New England totaled 26 sacks, or 2.6 per game.
Taking advantage of a horrific Chargers line will be key for New England. The Chargers have allowed a sack on 10.6% of pass plays this season, indicating just how bad the unit has been. New England should expect Milton Williams and Christian Barmore to perform, but a stellar performance from Chaisson could morph this game from a tough battle into a dominant victory.
CB Carlton Davis
It's been an up-and-down year for Carlton Davis during his first year in New England. His 10.1 yards allowed per catch is the lowest of his career, but his nine penalties are his most since 2020. Things no doubt got better in the latter half of the year.
After the bye, Davis allowed less than 22 yards per game. Since his breakout game against Cincinnati, he's allowed a 57.1% completion rate. Before the Bengals game, opposing quarterbacks had a 65.9% completion rate when targeting him.
In the last game, Carlton Davis was flagged for pass interference against Tahj Washington, which cost the team 27 yards. Quinn Ewers was 3/4 when targeting Davis, and he has a season-worst 40.8 PFF grade against the run.
Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez has been excellent this season, and Marcus Jones has truly established himself as one of the league's premier slot options. Davis's season has been something of a rollercoaster.
He'll be tasked with covering both Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston on Sunday, the Chargers' primary outside options. Ladd McConkey has played 37% of his snaps on the outside, meaning he'll also have to deal with UGA alum's agility in spurts. Davis will need to be at his best for the Patriots to limit Justin Herbert.
New England will need to bring their A-game to beat the 11-6 Chargers, but these three players could be the biggest keys to their success.