Record prediction roundup: Experts have no faith in Patriots improving in 2024

Because the 2024 season schedules were released just a few weeks ago, there are plenty of opinions about how the Patriots will fare this upcoming season.

With so many organizational changes happening this offseason, most notably the departure of Bill Belichick and the naming of Jerod Mayo as his replacement, plus a significant change at quarterback, there isn't a lot of optimism that New England will be a better team this year.

The roster looks improved from just one year ago, which should benefit the team this season. However, a toughhave schedule and uncertainty at who will be under center has made those predicting the Patriots' 2024 record reluctant to project more wins than the 2023 season.

Hopefully, they're primarily wrong and will win more than four games this year. That would be quite the way for the Mayo and Drake Maye era to start and a good sign amid a rebuild.

But because the rebuilding is expected to take longer than one year, the Patriots are likely to face a fate similar to that of the last few years.

Record prediction roundup: Experts have no faith in Patriots improving in 2024

NFL.com projection: 5.3 wins

Cynthia Freelund says:

“This is also a rosy outlook, 5.3 wins. Yes, it is last in the AFC East, but it’s more than some people expect them to win.

“I do think that Drake Maye gives them an extra edge, and even though they were a little confusing in terms of the passing game last year. They were ranked last in that, according to Next Gen Stats, I think they start to do the turn around right now.”

CBS Sports projection: 5-12

Patriots Wire projection: 7-10

Jordy McElroy writes:

"A 7-10 finish to the season would be a remarkable achievement from a Patriots team that finished 4-13 last year and underwent major changes in the offseason.

It’s going to take Drake Maye and the offense time to get up to speed. Winning more games and generating a little positive momentum would be huge for the overall confidence of the team.

They’re on the right track with the rebuild. They just need more time under the hood."

Pats Pulpit projection: 5-12

Matthew Rewinski writes:

"If everything shakes out like our semi-educated guesses, that puts the Patriots at a miserable 5-12, which squares up with what pretty much every sportsbook has them projected at also (most books have the Pats wins over/under at 4.5)."

Sports Illustrated projection: 4-13

Matt Verderame writes:

"This is a relaunch for the Patriots, who have a new coach, general manager and quarterback. If New England wins only a few games but Drake Maye looks like a star, that’s success. Looking at the schedule, the Patriots will need to be tough at home and maybe steal a few on the road."

Fox Sports projection: 3-14

Henry McKenna writes:

"There are more than three winnable games on the Patriots' schedule. I've circled the Colts, the Chargers, the Bears and the Titans as beatable for New England. But a part of me thinks this will be a really tough year for New England, especially if it decides to keep first-round pick Drake Maye on the bench while Jacoby Brissett acts as a steward on offense. The Patriots are going to suffer a lot of tough losses and may even finish 0-6 in the division. The defense is good — but Bill Belichick is gone. The offense looks too similar to the one from last year that ended up being abominable. It's tough to get optimistic about this team."

The 33rd Team projection: 5-12

Marcus Mosher writes:

"This will be the first season for the New England Patriots without Bill Belichick on the sideline since 1999. With Jerod Mayo as the coach, the Patriots will look much different this year.

Expect this season to be rough, especially on offense where New England will have a rookie quarterback and a less-than-stellar offensive line. In the highly competitive AFC, the Patriots could finish with the conference’s worst record."

Pro Football Network projection: 6-11

Tony Catalina writes:

"When you look at this Patriots team, it’s clear to see that there will be growing pains. Whether it’s Jacoby Brissett under center or No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye, it’s fair to expect struggles on the offensive side of the ball. After adding RB Antonio Gibson in free agency and drafting WRs Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, we’ll see if the offense has more playmakers than last year when that was a huge weakness.

Where the hope lies for the Patriots is in Mayo and his defense. The group was excellent at times last season, and they will need to be again in 2024.

A true strength of this team, the defense will need to keep the Patriots in games this year and hope that the offense can do enough to give them a chance at pulling out a win."

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