Projecting Antonio Gibson’s stats with the Patriots in 2024 

Britain Covey’s grandfather, the motivational speaker, and Harvard graduate Stephen Covey once said, “Strength lies in difference, not similarities.” That’s pretty forward-thinking for a Mormon. 

The Patriots' front office ignored that line of thinking when they recruited a running back to pair with Rhamondre Stevenson.

They made Antonio Gibson’s signature a priority in free agency, but with Stevenson’s return to fitness, they now have two very similar running backs. Most teams prefer "thunder and lightning" if they operate a two-headed monster-type backfield, but the Patriots have gone for "thunder and thunder."

Putting aside how signing two 26-year-old backs in the same offseason looks like just another of the odd decisions the front office made in the offseason (although they might not have expected Stevenson’s contract extension to be so simple), this now gives the Patriots offense a certain vibe. 

The vibe of a team that will lean on the run game and rotate their two main men. The most effective running back pairings have different attributes, like David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs or Isiah Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon. 

But both Patriots backs are tough runners who can catch passes. Stevenson may be better suited to running outside zone plays. But the former Memphis Tiger, Gibson, has experience returning kicks, so he’s comfortable in space and won't have any issue getting outside the tackles either.

New guy Gibson averages 4.1 yards per carry throughout his career compared to Stevenson’s 4.5. At the same time, Stevenson averages 6.5 yards per reception compared to Gibson’s 7.5. That’s not the most scientific comparison, but it illustrates how similar they both are.

Expect a lot of work for Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson this year

Since they drafted Gibson in 2020, the Washington Football Team (as they were then) have stumbled from one disaster to another, so it’s difficult to put much credence in the numbers he put up in D.C.

But Scott Turner is a respected offensive coordinator in the league (and definitely didn’t get his job because his dad is Norv Turner) (ok, maybe he did). Turner started Gibson in 31 of the former East Central Community College student’s first 51 games in the league, so the Georgia native brings experience and quality to New England.

Last year, in Cleveland Alex Van Pelt had to start four different running backs after Nick Chubb’s season-ending injury, hopefully, that sort of luck won't follow Van Pelt to New England. In 2022, the injury bug bypassed Cleveland; hopefully, he relied on Chubb and Kareem Hunt to do most of the work.  

They split 425 carries, with Chubb getting 71% of them. D’Ernest Johnson and Jerome Ford shared 12 carries between them. The Browns ran the ball 532 times in 2022 (and 518 last year), 117 times more than the Patriots did in 2023! 

Hunt saw more targets in the passing game though, with 44 compared to Chubb’s 37. 

Stevenson and Gibson are more similar than Chubb and Hunt, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Van Pelt won’t use them similarly. If he does, then Gibson will be in line for his most rushing yards since 2021. 

That would require the offensive line to perform considerably better than it did in 2023, and with Scott Peters taking over from Adrian Klemm, it definitely will. 

So, how will Gibson look in the Patriots offense?

There is the issue of having no experienced left tackles on the roster, but that will be more of a problem in the passing game. If Van Pelt sticks with the run game, come what may, he can gloss over the front office’s biggest error.

The run game is unique in that only one side of the offensive line needs to block well to rack up yards on the ground. The Patriots certainly have the players to create an effective run game on the right-hand side of the line. 

With as many as three tight-ends who can all block on the roster, a healthier JuJu Smith-Schuster, and the possibility of Jaheim Bell lining up at fullback the Patriots should be able to run the ball more effectively this year. 

If Stevenson and Gibson are Van Pelt’s next Chubb and Hunt then the former Commander should record 656 rushing yards in 2024. He’ll rack up 352 receiving yards too and will end the season with six touchdowns. 

Gibson did return kickoffs in Washington too, 35 kicks to be precise and he averaged 23.6 yards per return. But with the new kickoff rules and the number of return specialists the Patriots have it’s difficult to predict he will do it again this year. 

More Patriots coverage: