Over or under, the magic question when win totals are discussed in the offseason prior to the NFL season. According to sports odds, the Patriots' 2023 win total is set at 7.5 wins.
The best way to approach this is by looking through the schedule and seeing where the Patriots come home with the win and where they walk home empty handed. When it is all said and done, the Patriots finish UNDER the 7.5 win total.
The first four games of the year are absolutely brutal for the Patriots. The Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys are all playoff contenders going into the year. From this quarter of games I expect the Patriots will only win one game. The Patriots are expected to be underdogs in all four of these games.
The next stretch in the middle of the season is probably their most favorable portion of the very difficult schedule. Over the course of the next six games they face four teams who missed the playoffs last season. I feel it is safe to assume they win three to four of their next six games with likely losses coming on behalf of the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.
Okay timeout, Lets do the math! By my count the Patriots are at four or five wins on the season through the first ten games. Of course, as underdogs the Patriots could win and this would mess up our UNDER 7.5 wins bet, but the same could be said with them being favored over the Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts, and Las Vegas Raiders.
Now to the remainder of the schedule! Truthfully, in the next seven games all the teams left on the schedule may have a better roster than the Patriots. First, the New York Giants who were a surprise playoff team with first year head coach Brian Daboll. Winnable game for the Patriots, but between the Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers who they face in two weeks, the Patriots will most likely split those two games.
The other five games on the schedule are the Los Angeles Chargers, Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. This is a gauntlet to end the year in which could turn the season upside down. This being so far away it is hard to know, but the Patriots could very easily be underdogs against all of these teams with the Broncos expected to be much improved from last season.