The Patriots' roster is about set and should look the same when the 2023 season begins. Let's take a stab at a record prediction for this coming season. I must admit; I am not very high on the Patriots for the 2023 season.
It's clear that the organization has made strides to improve the roster on both sides of the ball, but their apparently unwillingness to upgrade the QB position is going to bite them in the rear end in time.
The AFC East saw much improvement this year; the Miami Dolphins added defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and traded for All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers, and the Buffalo Bills did not get worse.
I do think the Patriots improved their roster, but I don't think they did enough.
Way too early record prediction for the Patriots
The Patriots' home games are as follows: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers, Saints, Eagles, Commanders.
I'm going to be honest, I don't see more than two or three wins here. Outside of the Colts and Commanders< each game is with a team who made the playoffs last year or a legitimate playoff contender this year.
Where are the wins here? I like the team to beat the Commanders and Colts. I think the Patriots have a better roster and better coaching than those two teams, and I think the Saints would be a 55/44 type of favor towards New England. Outside of that, though, I don't think I can reasonably make an argument for the Patriots to beat any of the other teams on their home schedule.
Perhaps they can catch a team in a trap game. Maybe they can steal a home win against one of their divisional opponents, but I truly would not bet on it.
Home games record: 3-6
Their away games are as follows: Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Giants, Steelers.
My goodness. The Patriots have an absolute gauntlet of a schedule in 2023. Where are the wins with their away games? Maybe the Raiders? Maybe the Giants? Maybe the Steelers? The AFC is truly loaded this year and many of the teams in this conference are making significant moves to improve their roster on a short amount of time.
We know the story with their AFC East rivals, but the Cowboys added Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks to an already great roster. The Denver Broncos added Sean Payton and reinforcements along their offensive line. The Raiders did regress a bit since they dumped Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo.
The New York Giants were a surprise team in 2022 and did improve over the offseason, and the Pittsburgh Steelers filled their most important needs in free agency and in the 2023 NFL Draft.
I'm going to say that the Patriots take down the Raiders, Giants, and Steelers in 2023.
Away games record: 3-5.
That would give the New England Patriots a 6-11 record in 2022, a two win regress from their 2022 season and a four win regress from their 2021 season where they made the playoffs with a rookie Mac Jones.
Maybe I'm proven wrong, and I'd love to see that, but right now, I do not see much more than a large handful of wins in 2023. Unless something drastic changes, expect another disappointing season.