No. 2 - The Patriots defense is going to force 3 turnovers
One way to stay in a game where one's offense is not moving the ball well is to create turnovers when the other team has the ball. Buffalo has three games this season with three or more turnovers, including Week 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Buffalo still won the game because the Chargers are simply terrible (they've lost six of seven, and we won't discuss the one win they did actually get in that stretch) and because Los Angeles kicked field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen also seems to be struggling to pass the ball. In Buffalo's last four games, he has more touchdowns rushing (6) than passing (5). Before Week 16, he completed 56.9 percent of his passes or less in the previous three games. Allen also has thrown at least one interception in every game this year, but three. His 15 interceptions on the season are second-most in the NFL.
New England isn't likely to get a ton of sacks on Allen. He is tough to bring down even when a defender gets home on him, but he can be inaccurate and as long as the Patriots hold in coverage, Allen is going to force a pass or three. New England will get 2 interceptions in Week 17 and also force a James Cook fumble and this will be enough for the Patriots to stay within striking distance in the fourth quarter.