Patriots survived a brutal early-season schedule (and the payoff could be coming)

The New England Patriots had Super Bowl aspirations after exceeding expectations in 2025, but through the first three weeks this new season, those hopes looked to be dashed.

Entering a Week 4 road game at Buffalo, the Patriots had a 1-2 record and the worst offense in the league. In fact, their 0.97 points per drive was the lowest figure through the first three games of a season since the 2021 New York Jets, led by Zach Wilson.

From Weeks 4 to 6, it was a different story. The Patriots quickly turned their season around with a three-game win streak while averaging 33.3 points per game. All three wins were over AFC opponents, including divisional wins over the Bills and Jets.

While they fell to the Bears in a close game on Thursday Night Football, Drake Maye has proven that the first few games were little more than a fluke. He's totaled 14 touchdowns and three turnovers since Week 4, putting the Patriots back into the Super Bowl hunt.

While a 4-3 record doesn't wow, it's especially impressive considering the laundry list of injuries the Patriots have had over the first seven weeks. A.J. Brown, Mike Onwenu, Mack Hollins, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Romeo Doubs, Reggie Gilliam, Brenden Schooler, and Harold Landry have all spent time on IR, PUP, or NFI. Additionally, TreVeyon Henderson, Christian Barmore, Dre'Mont Jones, Carlton Davis, and Craig Woodson have all missed at least one game.

Now, the Patriots' schedule will only get more favorable, according to Sharp Football Analytics.

New England made it through one of the NFL's toughest stretches with its season intact

The Patriots' 4-3 record is middling, but considering the strength of their opponents through the first seven games, a winning record is very respectable. According to data analyst Warren Sharp, the Patriots have played the third-most difficult schedule in football so far.

According to Sharp, only the 1-6 Dolphins and 5-2 Broncos have had harder schedules than the Patriots thus far. Among teams in the "harder schedule" region of the graph, the Patriots are one of six AFC teams with a winning record.

Looking forward, the Patriots will likely see Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollins, and Reggie Gilliam return within the next few weeks. A.J. Brown's injury status is still up in the air, while it's been unclear what Alijah Vera-Tucker's timeline for return looks like. Regardless, the law of averages would suggest the Patriots will be healthier in the second half of the season.

New England faces four teams with losing records over its last 10 games: the 1-6 Dolphins in Week 8 and 18, the 0-6 Chargers in Week 12, and the 2-5 Jets in Week 16. Additionally, they'll face the Bills and Lions, each of whom has a bottom-seven defense by points per game. They've also already beaten the former.

The undefeated Vikings have the league's best defense by far, allowing just 12.3 points per game. They also, however, have played the easiest schedule in the league and have the 24th-ranked offense. In the four games in which Kyler Murray has been the primary quarterback, the offense has averaged 19.3 points and is yet to eclipse 23 points.

The Chiefs and Packers will be difficult opponents, while the 5-2 Broncos have been gritty in spite of Bo Nix's poor quarterback play. A projection of 10-to-12 wins would appear to be more than reasonable for the Patriots to finish the season with.

While the Patriots started the year with three uninspired offensive showings, they've done well to turn their season around in spite of terrible injury luck and one of the league's most difficult schedules.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow