Patriots-Ravens Sunday night showdown comes down to red zone survival

The outcome of this weekend's Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens could be heavily influenced by the performance of these teams' respective defensive and offensive units in the red zone.

Both have struggled heavily this season, with the Patriots' defense having allowed the league's worst opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage coming into this week, per Team Rankings, while the Ravens' offense has produced the NFL's second-worst team red zone touchdown scoring percentage so far this season.

For the Patriots to win this battle of bottom-ranked red zone groups, the team will need to overcome a host of injuries to some of the top players on their defense, and outplay a Ravens team whose playoff odds will be significantly impacted by the outcome of this prime-time contest.

Several key contributors on the Patriots defense are dealing with injuries

New England's injury report on Friday designated four defensive starters as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, including cornerback Carlton Davis III (hip), cornerback Marcus Jones (knee), outside linebacker Harold Landry (knee), and defensive tackle Christian Barmore (knee), while also listing linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) as out. The team is also still without defensive tackle Milton Williams, who is continuing to work his way back from an ankle injury suffered in Week 11 that landed him on injured reserve.

The on-field impact of Williams being sidelined has already been felt by the Patriots, who, according to Team Rankings, sported the NFL's best run defense through the first 11 weeks of the season, but over the three games since he went down the team has ranked 23rd in that department. This downward trend may continue against Baltimore, a team which ranks third league-wide in rush yards per game on the season. Additionally, New England's red zone defense has been the second-worst in the NFL through the contests Williams has missed, allowing touchdowns on 85.71 percent of opposing drives deep into Patriots' territory during that span.

New England also sorely missed Spillane last week against the Buffalo Bills. The absence of their leading tackler (who has posted 97 on the year so far) contributed to the Patriots' squandering of a three-score lead in the second half. On Wednesday, Spillane was spotted wearing a walking boot in the team's locker room prior to the official announcement he would miss the Baltimore game.

Pats' defensive red zone struggles on full display last week

Without both Spillane and Williams last week, the Patriots' defense was tied for third-worst in the NFL in third down conversions allowed, an aspect of the game this group usually excels at, as they are also tied for the third-best mark in that category throughout the season. New England's inability to get the defense off the field on third down without Spillane further hurt their previously mentioned poor red zone play, allowing the Bills' offense to score touchdowns on 83 percent of their trips to that part of the field.

Despite the aforementioned injury woes, the Patriots' defense cannot afford to turn in a repeat performance from last week's contest on Sunday Night Football, especially in the red zone. Otherwise, Ravens dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson will be happy to take advantage of the same opportunities Josh Allen recently exploited.

Ravens still have plenty to play for entering Week 16

Baltimore's second-worst red zone offense comes amid a challenging season for Jackson, their former MVP signal-caller. The four-time Pro Bowler, who tossed a career-high 41 touchdowns just a year ago, missed three games after suffering a hamstring injury in the third-quarter of the Ravens' Week 4 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Ever since then, NFL executives have reportedly noted, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, that Jackson "doesn’t look the same," "looks off with his timing," and is "just not as explosive as in the past."

This downturn in play has continuously prevented the Ravens from finishing drives into the red zone with touchdowns, even as they've entered the stretch run of this season with their playoff hopes growing increasingly dire. Over their last three games, in which Baltimore is just 1-3, the team's offense has the league's third-worst red zone efficiency, according to Team Rankings, scoring touchdowns on only 33 percent of trips within their opponents' 20-yard line.

However, Jackson and the Ravens still have an opportunity to rewrite the narrative on this season for them and sneak into the playoffs. Baltimore being in the mix for a postseason berth at this point in the year might have seemed like a far-fetched prospect when they sat at 1-5 entering Week 8, but after their 24-0 win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, this squad is now just one game back of the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.