At the start of the regular season, penciling in the New England Patriots as a threat to win the AFC East seemed to be an afterthought for many reasons.
The biggest ones? The Buffalo Bills have owned the division since 2020 and are in Super Bowl or bust mode this season. The Patriots had a second-year quarterback, a new-to-them head coach, and a roster chalked full of preseason questions.
Well, that's why they play the games. Entering Week 9, the 6-2 Patriots had a half-game division lead on the 5-2 Bills, whose odds to win the AFC East are at 58 percent to New England's 42 percent. At the start of October, the Patriots' chances of unseating the Bills stood at 6%.
NEW: The Patriots now have a 42% chance to win the AFC East after sitting at just 6% earlier this month.
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) October 29, 2025
Can Buffalo hold them off? pic.twitter.com/DSoIYg7LzE
Now, as the season steers towards its second half, the million-dollar question is this: Can the Patriots sustain the hot streak they're currently on and overtake the Bills, or will Josh Allen and company find their stride down the stretch?
Patriots' schedule will be an X-factor over the second half of the season
Games aren't played on paper; we all know that. But when you look at the schedules the Bills and the Patriots have remaining, you'd have to give a slight edge to New England.
Buffalo still has to face Kansas City, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh, although three of those games are in Orchard Park. Don't be shocked if the Bills go 3-1 at the worst over that stretch.
Meanwhile, the Patriots still have Buffalo at home and Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay on the road. Those four games represent New England's toughest remaining contests. The Bengals suddenly look somewhat respectable again with Joe Flacco under center, and Lamar Jackson is expected to return to the Ravens this week. I'm still not buying Baker Mayfield as an MVP candidate, but Tampa Bay on the road won't be an easy task.
Other than that, the Patriots have the Jets twice, and the Dolphins, Giants, and Falcons at home. That isn't exactly a murderer's row for Drake Maye and company. If the Patriots win all five of those, they'll have at least 11 wins.
So what does that all add up to? The Patriots can steal this division from the Bills. Julian Edelman believes it will happen. Talk-show hosts are starting to buy in. So why not everyone else?
Yes, the New England defense does have to start games better, and the running game has to keep getting untracked. But the Bills aren't without their own issues—an injury to defensive lineman Ed Oliver is currently the biggest—so if the Patriots stay hot and the Bills slip up, get ready for playoff football in Foxborough in January.