The New England Patriots roster will have many areas to improve upon during the 2026 offseason. While their 14-3 record and Super Bowl appearance are strong signs of current and future success, continuing to improve the roster will be necessary.
Should New England win the Super Bowl, there seems to be a real possibility that they could be hit with a flurry of retirements. Stefon Diggs, Morgan Moses, and Jahlani Tavai all seem legitimate candidates. While we'll be hoping these players stick around for another year, clearing as much cap space as possible to fill any potential voids going into next year will be key.
Over the Cap recently released their top-100 candidates to be cap casualties ahead of the 2026 offseason, and three Patriots made the list. OTC uses a specific formula for its calculation. As noted by the source, there are many mitigating factors for these players, and the vast majority won't be released.
Of the three Patriots, only one ranks in the top-50: Anfernee Jennings, No. 8 on the list. Christian Elliss comes in at No. 51, while Hunter Henry was a shock addition at No. 99. Only 11 teams had more than three players on the list, the most being the Cardinals, with nine potential cap casualties in OTC's top-100.
The Patriots will need to make difficult contract decisions this offseason
The Patriots are 10th in adequate cap space and hold 12 draft picks in the upcoming draft. There's little doubt they have the potential to significantly improve their roster, and adding more financial capital could help.
Hunter Henry a lock to stay in New England
Beginning with the least likely of the three players mentioned, Hunter Henry is a lock to be on the roster next season, despite OTC's 69.1% "Odds of Negative Fate" (release or pay cut) metric saying otherwise.
Henry is coming off the best year of his career, despite turning 31 in December. He counts for just over $11 million against the cap in '26, and while his release would save over $9 million, it would be foolish to strip Maye of one of his favorite targets.
Christian Elliss seems unlikely to be cut
While I wouldn't have thought Elliss and his $8.6 million cap hit would be with the team in 2026, his play during the second half of the season has flipped the narrative. While an addition or two at linebacker is still likely in my opinion, it doesn't seem likely to be at the expense of Elliss.
Considering Jack Gibbens is a free agent, and Jahlani Tavai is a retirement candidate, moving on from Elliss doesn't seem necessary unless they have an immediate replacement in mind.
Anfernee Jennings the most likely departure
Jennings has a 70.7% chance of a negative outcome according to OTC, which is higher than that of just 19 players. Nonetheless, he ranks 8th on their list of cut candidates.
Parting with Jennings would be an interesting move from New England. On one hand, he evidently doesn't fit Vrabel's style of edge defender. Harold Landry, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Elijah Ponder are all pass-rush-centric players, while Jennings is primarily a contributor in run force.
While it seemed he wouldn't even make the team at the beginning of the year, he's found a way to carve out a solid role late in the season in Landry's absence. He's played 20+ defensive snaps in all seven games since New England's bye week, something he accomplished just three times before their Week 14 hiatus.
His release wouldn't save much, just $3.9 million. His contributions late in the year lead me to believe he's safe until after free agency, when the team can evaluate how any moves they made might affect his future. The 29-year-old could also have some trade value, however minimal.
Shipping him to a team that's struggled in run force for a pick swap isn't unrealistic.
While Jennings seems the most likely of the three to bid Foxborough adieu, I wouldn't say the odds are higher than 25% as things stand. His late-season contributions, paired with the minimal cap savings, don't make it worth parting with an experienced veteran.
While there is merit in releasing Jennings if he is not part of the team's 2026 plans, it still seems a bit overzealous to release any of the three players. It seems unlikely they'll be able to recoup their production via the money saved from any of their contracts, so unless a noticeable upgrade becomes available, it seems nonsensical to make a move.