A year ago, the New England Patriots had just come off a second consecutive 4-13 season with a bottom-of-the-NFL roster and a first-year Head Coach fired. In came Mike Vrabel on January 12, 2025, and their NFL world has been turned upside down.
The Patriots are now betting favorites in the AFC to win the Super Bowl.
Vrabel's hiring, though a year late, was the perfect complement to the Patriots' top commodity, their terrific young quarterback, Drake Maye. Vrabel signed on in large part because he knew he had a future superstar in the young (22-year-old) Maye. He wasn't wrong.
He rebuilt a dismal offensive line to at least an NFL-capable level, added wide receivers who could perform, and an explosive running back, who allowed Maye to flourish. Meanwhile, on defense, Vrabel added more and better players to a lackluster group. In their first playoff game, that D showed its mettle by holding the LA Chargers and their top quarterback, Justin Herbert, to just three points.
Patriots move up in the Super Bowl odds because they deserve it
Racking up a 14 -3 record in any NFL season is an achievement, no matter what the naysayers tried to make of a so-called "soft schedule". By beating Buffalo and Tampa Bay earlier on the road and now knocking the Chargers out of the playoffs, the Patriots have put all that malarkey to rest, no matter what else happens going forward. And now, the oddsmakers see it differently, as well.
CBS Sports, citing DraftKings Sportsbook odds now indicate that the Patriots have moved up in the odds of winning the the Super Bowl to the top of the AFC rankings after defeating the Chargers.
"The Patriots were indeed favored to beat the Chargers, but not many were expecting Mike Vrabel's defense to make Justin Herbert look like a rookie. He was sacked six times, and completed 19 of 31 passes for 159 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, while the Chargers scored just three points and recorded 207 yards of total offense.
The Chargers are objectively one of the better teams the Patriots have faced this season, and they completely dominated. Drake Maye didn't exactly look like an MVP front-runner...but he did enough to win. Now, Vegas views the Patriots as the front-runners in the AFC. "
The Patriots and Drake Maye will have to up their game when they play the Houston Texans. They have a solid quarterback in C.J. Stroud. The Texanswere rated 18th in the NFL in total offense by Fox Sports. (The Chargers were 12th while the Patriots were third.) The Patriots' defense, after spinning a gem against Justin Herbert and company, should also be poised for a solid showing against Houston.
Drake Maye and the defense have to carry the day to get to the AFC Championship Game
Patriots' All-Pro quarterback Drake Maye suffered through his worst completion percentage in a half all season, 40%, in the first half against the Chargers. Fortunately, he rebounded nicely in the second, including completing a 28-yard score to his reliable tight end, Hunter Henry.
Maye may not be afforded the luxury of a dreadful half against the Texans, who walloped the Steelers 30-6, scoring 23 points in the fourth quarter.
That performance by Stroud and company should also be a message to the Patriots' defense that the Texans are never out of a game. Yet, after dominating Herbert and the Chargers, the Patriots' defense, bolstered by the rejuvenated big-game player, Milton Williams, and lead tackler, linebacker Robert Spillane, two of its best players should be ready to roll.
Expect Maye and his solid offense to rebound and light up the scoreboard against the Texans. One aspect of that offense that is still troubling, however, is the offensive line. It surrendered a monstrous five sacks against Los Angeles, upping their total to 52 in 18 games.
That's not good enough if this team is to advance to where it ultimately wants to go, the Super Bowl.
Regardless, expect Drake Maye to shake off any jitters this week and rack up his usual excellent stats in the process of sending the Texans packing. Aided by a defense that's hitting its stride at the best possible time, and the NFL's best coach, Mike Vrabel, expect the Patriots to host the Bills in Foxborough next week in their first AFC Championship game since 2018.