Patriots free agent gamble keeps making his new deal feel inevitable

The New England Patriots made some big-ticket free agent signings this past offseason, but some of the one-year deals they handed out to defenders have made a real difference. Khyiris Tonga has been key in run support, Jack Gibbens has 71 tackles on the year, and Jaylinn Hawkins is PFF's 7th best safety. Above all those players, the best bargain may have been K'Lavon Chaisson.

Chaisson, a first-round pick in 2020 from LSU, first entered the NFL with the Jaguars. The No. 20 overall pick was disappointing in North Florida, recording five sacks in four seasons. He was released during final roster cuts by the Carolina Panthers last season and subsequently signed with the Raiders.

He matched his career sack total during his single season in Las Vegas, and inked a one-year deal worth up to $5 million with New England.

This year, the ex-Tiger has shone, recording a career high 8 sacks and forcing two fumbles. He also notched his first career defensive touchdown against the Titans earlier in the season. He ranks 20th among edge defenders in pressures and 16th in hurries.

A big contract for K'Lavon Chaisson seems inevitable for the Patriots

Chaisson's first-round talent is finally starting to show. He's been a capable running mate to Harold Landry, and against Baltimore, he sealed the win with a massive forced fumble on Zay Flowers with under two minutes to go.

I have been opposed to bringing back Chaisson on an expensive deal, but his playoff performances could sway me should he be effective when it matters most. The primary concern is his lack of past production: can he maintain this level of play, or is this a one-year charade?

New England was wise not to give a rich extension to Josh Uche, who had 11.5 sacks in 2022, and has had six sacks since. There are legitimate concerns with paying a potential one-year wonder.

Additionally, New England's 2.0 sacks per game rank them 22nd in the league, an area they must improve upon during the offseason. Paying Chaisson $10 to $12 million per season would maintain, not improve, their current level of pass rush. A veteran like Khalil Mack could be a better option.

Regardless of what New England decides to do, Chaisson will be in line for a major payday should he continue to produce. Uchenna Nwosu and Demarcus Lawrence each make around $10 million per season, while Joey Bosa is closer to the $12 million mark.

That seems like a fair range for Chaisson, though he could make a bit more if a team is desperate for pass rush aid. Given that New England gave Harold Landry $14.5 million per year, it isn't out of the question that Chaisson surpasses my projected range and replicates the BC alum's three-year contract.

Stay or go, the Patriots should be incredibly grateful for what Chaisson has brought to New England at such a low price. He's been a key pass rush contributor, and his forced fumble on Sunday night will be a play fans look at as one of the most key moments of the season, should they make a deep playoff run.