The New England Patriots will play in the AFC Championship on Sunday for the first time since 2018 in Mike Vrabel's first-ever season as the head coach. Jeers about the team's weak schedule haven't held up over their last two games, as they took down both the Chargers and Texans by two scores.
Despite having the No. 2-ranked offense during the regular season, however, Drake Maye's side of the ball hasn't been what's kept the squad churning. In fact, they've averaged just 18.5 offensive PPG across their two playoff matchups and have yet to record a rushing touchdown.
In their first game against the Chargers, L.A. struggled to get much going offensively, and 16 points were enough for the Patriots to claw out a win. Six sacks from the defense, along with holding Justin Herbert and company to just 1/10 on third down, made all the difference as they sent the California team home.
On Sunday against the Texans, C.J. Stroud's four first-half interceptions, one of which was a pick-six, ended the league's newest franchise's Super Bowl hopes. Woody Marks contributed an additional turnover after a third-quarter fumble, and the Texans netted just 9 points on offense.
The Patriots defense has given up one touchdown in two postseason games, and it was a 27-yard drive off of turnover.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) January 18, 2026
The Broncos aren't read for what the Patriots defense has coming
The Broncos have made it this far for a reason. 14-3 during the regular season, they had a very good defense that earned them a bye in the Wildcard round of the playoffs and took down Josh Allen's Bills after he had four turnovers on his own.
Bo Nix, however, will miss the rest of the playoffs due to a fracture in his right foot.
Former Patriot Jarrett Stidham will lead the Broncos on Sunday, but it's hard to imagine he'll have much success. He hasn't thrown a ball in a game since 2023, is the only backup quarterback this season to not do so, and it will be the first time in history a quarterback will attempt his first pass of the year in a conference championship game.
Add in that Josh McDaniels knows all his inner workings, and things may not materialize in the way Denver fans hope.
The Patriots' defense has allowed 9.5 PPG over their two playoff games. Since the bye, they've allowed 16.3 PPG. No matter how you dice it, the Patriots' defense is playing at an elite level, and with both Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back after they each missed time during the latter half of the year, the unit looks as good as ever.
While Stidham will likely struggle, the team will need to be careful not to think ahead to the Super Bowl. The former Auburn QB has nothing to lose, and with the Patriots offense on the road in Denver after either fumbling or throwing an interception 7 times in the last eight quarters, the Broncos have reason for their small glimmer of hope.
Stopping Denver's run game will be key
Denver's run play rate (41.21%) ranked 24th in the league this season, which is the second-lowest among playoff teams. With Nix no longer a piece to the puzzle, Denver will likely have to rely on their stable of backs rather than their heavy passing attack. Second-round pick RJ Harvey, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Tyler Badie will make up that stable.
There have only been six games this season during which Bo Nix has attempted 30 or fewer passes. Two of the Broncos' three losses have come when that happens, and they average 22.3 PPG. Omit their outlier 44-point performance against the Cowboys, the league's worst defense, and that average plummets to 18 PPG.
The Broncos rely on an exorbitantly high passing rate to put together a meager offense. They had the ninth-best offense among playoff teams at the end of the season and the fifth-best in the AFC. Denver ranked 16th in rushing yards per game, eighth among playoff teams.
In their lone playoff matchup this year, Broncos running backs took 10 carries for 41 yards. Omit each back's longest run, and a respectable 4.1 YPC drops to just 2.0 a pop.
The Patriots, on the other hand, just held Woody Marks to 17 yards from 14 carries, while also ripping the ball out for a fumble. The Patriots have allowed 61 yards from the 30 carries to running backs across their first two playoff games: 2.0 per carry.
Omit a fumble recovery that netted 10 yards for Chargers' Kimani Vidal, and that average drops further to 1.8 a carry.
Harvey averaged just 3.7 yards per carry this year for the Broncos, while McLaughlin hasn't been entrusted with more than seven carries in a game this year. Badie has 23 yards all year. The Patriots shouldn't have much trouble against a Stidham-led Broncos team that already has a weak rushing attack.
Even if New England does have another rough offensive outing, a weak Broncos squad should be easily handled by this defense.