The New England Patriots have a lot to be excited about. Their young core of players and new head coach, Mike Vrabel, have led them to a 14-3 record with playoff success, and the potential for more this offseason is very real. The team will be 9th in effective cap space and holds 12 draft picks in the upcoming draft. New England has a lot to be excited about.
Conversely, the Bills are in a high-pressure position. Coach Sean McDermott may be on the outs if they can't win the AFC, leading to wholesale changes. The Jets, while flush with cash and draft picks, have many holes to fill and a head coach who was a candidate for firing after just a year. Worst of all, though, may be the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are far from a good place. They're $25 million over the cap, and have two players over the $50 million cap hit mark. While Tyreek Hill's deal is one they can easily get rid of, Tua Tagovailoa's is not. Releasing him would result in a total penalty of over $140 million, over 47% of next season's projected cap.
After the firing of Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins need to find their next head coach, and with former Steeler Mike Tomlin being one of the top names on the market, the Patriots' division rival may have wanted to make a push for him. Instead, Miami isn't considered one of Tomlin's top destinations.
The Patriots dodge a bullet as Miami isn't seen as a landing spot for Mike Tomlin
Miami is just not a top landing spot for Tomlin, and it's hardly an appealing place for any coach. The roster is in total disrepair, and the resources (-$25 million in cap space) to fix it aren't available.
It's hard to imagine any possibility of Tyreek Hill being on Miami's roster next season, and the bridge with Tua seems burned, despite his contract being impossible to cut. The team has a few pieces: Jaylen Waddle, Jordyn Brooks, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all nice players. Bradley Chubb isn't worth his $31 million cap number, while there's no benefit to 30-year-old Zach Sieler being on a non-playoff team.
Miami is in total disarray, but a coach like Tomlin may be able to make more out of less. Despite minimal playoff success, Tomlin has a career winning rate of .628 as a head coach and has never had a losing season.
Over the last five seasons, he's tailed off a bit: his win rate has dropped to .571, and he hasn't eclipsed ten wins.
Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox suggests the Falcons, Packers, Raiders, Giants, and Titans would all be more appealing options than Miami, as all of those teams have either a better roster or more potential to improve their roster than Miami. Knox also suggests the broadcast booth could be the next step for the Super Bowl-winning head coach, and I'm inclined to agree.
Regardless of where Tomlin ends up, New England should be happy he doesn't seem likely to accept the only open job in the AFC East and try to work on the project that is the Miami Dolphins.