The Patriots are finally on their bye week, in Week 14, and although they went into their break riding high off their tenth straight win and sitting at the top of the AFC, it appears to be something that won't last too long, maybe not even until they return to Foxboro to prepare for the second matchup against the Bills.
Playoff scenarios are starting to come into focus across the league, and the Patriots have a chance to lose on Sunday even though they aren't playing.
The unfortunate scenario seems likely to unfold, as the Broncos, who are at the top of the AFC West and currently the No. 2 in the AFC, face the Raiders this weekend, and a win would steal the No. 1 spot from the Patriots and clinch any tiebreaker against New England moving forward.
Denver can’t clinch a playoff spot today, but it can clinch something of significance. If Denver beats Las Vegas today, the Broncos clinch any two-way tiebreaker with New England for playoff seeding based on better record against common opponents. The Patriots lost in Week 1 to…
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 7, 2025
It's the brutal reality the Patriots will face for their early-season struggles, and it could be the ultimate determinant of where they are seeded in the playoffs by the end of the year.
The Broncos are going to make the Patriots playoff hopes a bit more difficult before the postseason even begins
What the Patriots have accomplished this season is nothing short of impressive, particularly for a team that recorded a 4-13 record in back-to-back seasons and was projected to only maybe double their wins in 2025.
They did that almost a month ago and have since become the first team to win 11 games this year, proving just how much work the Mike Vrabel regime put into making this a competitive team. And now they are looking at a playoff run for the first time since the 2021 season, and they could do that with a first-round bye.
But that's going to become trickier to accomplish if the Broncos win on Sunday, and based on how poorly the Raiders have been playing, it appears to be a near guarantee we will see that happen. There is always a chance it doesn't, as the "any given Sunday" saying goes, and because they're divisional rivals. But the Broncos have been playing incredibly well recently, so the odds are in their favor.
Although it wouldn't be a huge disaster for the Patriots to fall to No. 2, it is the difference between having a first-round bye and a guarantee to host every playoff game, to playing the first week and possibly having to travel if it comes down to them and the Broncos.
It would still be far more than we could have imagined they'd accomplish this season, but tasting the No. 1 seed is not something they'll want to lose any time soon. So they'll have to win out, or at least more games than the Broncos, to maintain that.
That won't be easy, but this Patriots team has proven they can do it.