The 2026 NFL training camps are well underway, with preseason just beginning. Many forecasts have downgraded the New England Patriots' prospects because of their significantly tougher strength of schedule after winning the AFC East Division in 2025, while downplaying the fact that they have a budding superstar quarterback in Drake Maye.
These dim predictions have a foundation. The schedule is far more arduous in 2026 than the powderpuff 2025 version. And the start of the season underscores that point. Right out of the box, the Patriots face last season's champions, the Seattle Seahawks, away on September 9.
The Seahawks game will be an immediate litmus test of how well Mike Vrabel and his personnel team have improved a team that the Seahawks easily dismantled in last season's Super Bowl. Things don't get much easier in the next three games as the Patriots face three more playoff teams in succession.
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton has predicted the 2026 records of all NFL teams. In the AFC East, he has the Buffalo Bills at 12-5, taking the division title, with the Patriots second at 10-7.
The New England Patriots can overcome the tougher 2026 schedule
Naysayers have solid grounds to downgrade the Patriots' chances in 2026. The schedule issue can't be dismissed out of hand. It's a valid comparison to 2025, and it holds water.
However, several key factors must be kept in mind before Patriot Nation throws its collective hands up and concedes the Division to Buffalo, as Moton suggests will occur.
"New England Patriots: 10-7
The Patriots made a post-June 1 trade splash with the addition of wide receiver A.J. Brown. They signed wideout Romeo Doubs early in free agency. Third-year quarterback Drake Maye will take another developmental leap after a close loss to Matthew Stafford in the 2025 MVP race. On the flip side, New England will play a much tougher schedule than it did last season. The Patriots win their final regular-season game to punch a ticket to the playoffs."
Moton both makes and debunks his own argument in his quote about the Patriots in 2026. He cites two major factors, among others, that could quickly change the equation to offset the tougher schedule.
The first is that they have Maye under center.
The MVP runner-up will continue to develop as he enters 2026 as a battle-tested, Super Bowl-participating quarterback. Even star Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen doesn't have that on his resume after eight years in the NFL. Two issues contributed to Maye's late-season drop-off.
One was an injured throwing shoulder that now appears to be healed. The other was his supporting cast on offense. As Moton points out, the addition of Brown and Doubs is significant. They will assume the top two wide receiver spots and be improvements over the 2025 versions.
In addition, the offensive line, while still sporting question marks, should be better.
Left tackle Will Campbell is now healthy, and the team also added another top left tackle, Caleb Lomu, in the draft. He'll fill in all over the O-line as the first man in at four positions if anyone goes down with an injury. And if top left guard free agent Alijah Vera-Tucker stays healthy, the O-line will improve.
Fewer sacks allowed means more completed passes and touchdown passes by Maye to Brown, Doubs, and others. If the defense can actually generate sacks, wins will follow in bunches. Several question marks remain about the 2026 Patriots roster.
The team must answer most of these questions affirmatively. If so, the 2026 Patriots will not only win the AFC East, but they'll go deep in the playoffs, and maybe again to the Super Bowl, more difficult schedule or not.
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