When your season begins with few expectations, anything positive is good. When you take a 2024, 4-13 team to the top of your conference after 12 games, it's very good. Mike Vrabel's 2025 New England Patriots led by the league's possible MVP, quarterback Drake Maye, now sit at the top of the AFC East. They are also the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they need to hold onto that situation.
The team that Mike Vrabel built has shocked just about every NFL observer as they have stormed to the top of their Division and Conference. They even stunned the always formidable Bills, led by the NFL's 2024 MVP, the inimitable Josh Allen, in Buffalo in a statement game.
As Patriot Nation knows, after two decades of excellence with Tom Brady, earning a Division title and even better the No. 1 seed in the AFC is a critical stepping stone to the ultimate prize, the Lombardi Trophy. If the 2025 Patriots have serious aspirations to replicate the feat of their 2003 predecessors and others, winning the top seed is a major advantage.
The Patriots are well-situated after 12 games for a deep playoff run
After 12 games of the 2025 season, the Patriots find themselves in the surprising yet enviable position of holding the keys to both the AFC East Division and the top seed of the AFC. The only mandate is to keep winning.
The #Patriots are the first team to 10 wins this season and—with the Broncos on a bye—hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoff Picture through 12 weeks. pic.twitter.com/eOjcwigwot
— Mike Kadlick (@mikekadlick) November 23, 2025
That situation can change, since the Broncos are on a bye week, yet, as the vintage sports saying goes, the Patriots' fate is in their own hands. While the Broncos are a threat, if the Patriots win out, they will win the AFC East and the AFC's top seed by virtue of the better Divisional record.
The Patriots' final five games will determine their playoff situation
After years of playoff elimination, it's a treat for Patriot Nation to look at the team's upcoming schedule and try to ascertain how they can accomplish their ultimate regular-season goals. The final five games against the Giants, Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins will determine it.
The Patriots play the Giants, Bills, and Dolphins at home. Three out of five ain't bad. While all these games loom large, the game against the Bills may very well seal the AFC East title for the Patriots. Conversely, Divisional losses to the Jets or Dolphins could be costly in the race for the AFC's top seed.
To win that prize of all regular-season prizes, however, they still hold all the cards if they win out. They'll then clinch a bye and home games throughout. That path is never easy, but it beats the alternative of having to travel.
Recent injuries to left tackle Will Campbell, left guard Jared Wilson, defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, and special teams ace Brenden Schooler have put a damper on things at Gillette Stadium. Vrabel hasn't had time to build proper depth for a deep playoff run. He's only had one offseason to rebuild a bottom of the NFL roster.
But Vrabel does have a great equalizer in quarterback Drake Maye. If a couple of backups can step up and fill in for Campbell and Wilson (rookie left tackle Marcus Bryant should be one of them), it can happen. We'll see how it all begins to play out, beginning with the Giants at home. It promises to be one heckuva ride.