Coming off an improbable worst-to-first campaign that led to a Super Bowl berth, you'd expect the New England Patriots to enter 2026 as one of the odds-on favorites in the AFC.
Yet despite adding three-time Pro Bowler A.J. Brown and former first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker on offense and All-Pro safety Kevin Byard and versatile lineman Dre'Mont Jones on defense, Mike Vrabel's team apparently faces quite an uphill battle to make it back to the playoffs.
New rankings don't even have the Patriots as a playoff lock in 2026
Somehow, the reigning conference champions aren't even considered among the league's safest bets for 2026. At least, not according to Bleacher Report.
In a recent piece ranking every NFL team's path to the playoffs, the Patriots bizarrely landed in the "Living on the Bubble" category, coming in at 14th overall. That puts them right ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals (18th), Dallas Cowboys (17th), New Orleans Saints (19th), and Green Bay Packers (16th).
Here's their rationale for putting the Patriots amongst a group that also includes the Jacksonville Jaguars (13th), Chicago Bears (12th), and Los Angeles Chargers (11th).
"You'd think they'd be more of a sure thing after an awesome 2025 campaign, but the risk of a Super Bowl hangover is high for a team that had extraordinary injury luck and capitalized on a comically soft schedule in 2025. Plus, the Bills are realistically the team to beat in the AFC East," wrote B/R's Brad Gagnon.
Don't discredit the culture in New England
Look, even diehard Patriots fans have to admit their beloved team experienced incredible injury luck in Vrabel's first year at the helm. Nearly every starter made it through the season fairly unscathed, with free-agent addition Harold Landry being the only major contributor whose production and playing time were impacted by an injury.
However, let's not pretend that this team didn't earn its way to a division title and conference championship with a second-year quarterback playing in his first year in Josh McDaniels' notoriously challenging offense.
Sure, it helped to have starters stay on the field. And it certainly helped to face several injury-riddled teams who ultimately failed to make the postseason
But do you really think Vrabel is going to let a squad that's suddenly teeming with both young stars and established veterans slip down the standings?
Does Drake Maye seem like a quarterback who commands the room and demands excellence, or does he give off the vibe of someone satisfied with finishing as the MVP runner-up and the runner-up for the Lombardi Trophy?
Did A.J. Brown basically fight his way out of Philadelphia to reunite with his former head coach just to pad his stats? Or did the Patriots just pay a hefty price for a highly motivated player who's looking to cement his legacy with a Super Bowl ring?
From an attitude and talent perspective, the Patriots have what it takes not just to repeat as AFC East champions but conference champions, too.
The Bills should still be looking up in the AFC East
Meanwhile, betting on the Bills to bounce back and reclaim their AFC East throne seems like a lofty proposition considering they have a first-year head coach in Joe Brady.
Perhaps the young offensive guru will find a way to unlock even more from Josh Allen. Or maybe his player-first approach will work better for a veteran-laden team.
However, it's not as if Brady wasn't already calling the plays and designing the offense. Projecting some sizable jump from Allen and Co. compared to what should happen with Maye, Brown, and Romeo Doubs is incredibly optimistic, especially given the depth the Patriots have at wide receiver and running back.
Plus, you could argue their offensive line should be much improved with Vera-Tucker at left guard, Jared Wilson moving back to his natural center spot, and rookie first-round pick Caleb Lomu providing valuable depth behind veteran right tackle Morgan Moses and second-year left tackle Will Campbell.
At this stage, the Patriots are by no means back to their dynasty days. But this is clearly a team on the rise with better drafting, smart free-agent additions, and a highly competent coaching staff that's a far cry from what was here the year before Vrabel arrived.
So, putting the Bills at No. 1 on the list—yes, they actually finished eight spots ahead of the Seattle Seahawks—is almost as bizarre as putting the Patriots ninth in the AFC and 14th overall.
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