'Tis the season to be predicting ... and predictions about NFL teams abound. If for nothing else, they're good entertainment, but at their best, they convey valuable insights into your favorite team, like the New England Patriots. National pundits are especially interesting.
It's always great to see that someone with gravitas predicts that your team will do great things, and maybe, surprisingly, make the playoffs when they were also-rans in the previous season. On the other hand, it can be deflating if they think your team will flop and be lousy in 2025.
In some articles, you may even encounter both views, which is even more intriguing. You might get a prediction of how well your team may perform at its best, and at the same time get a view on how poorly they might fare at their worst, along with some reasons to buttress each case.
CBS Sports has suggested a ceiling and floor for the 2025 Patriots
All fans of NFL teams are the beneficiaries of one such article that indeed suggests a possible high and low for each team.
CBS Sports' Jeff Kerr has done a nice job suggesting both a ceiling and floor (best possible win total vs. their worst) for each 2025 NFL team.
Unfortunately, though, he has the Patriots reaching a max of just eight wins, with their worst projection winning just one more game than they have in each of the last two seasons.
"Ceiling: 8-9, miss playoffs
The Patriots are significantly trending in the right direction, moving on from the Bill Belichick era and starting anew. The best decision they made this offseason was firing Jerod Mayo and hiring Mike Vrabel (and they made some good decisions)... and Drake Maye was impressive in his rookie season given what he had to work with. New England also has an easy schedule and the AFC East is not great this year. The Patriots are trending upward.
Floor: 5-12, miss playoffs
While the Patriots are a better team, there are significant concerns on the offensive line and still some question marks at wide receiver...Vrabel might also need more than a year to win consistently. The Patriots will be better, but it's fair not to expect a lot of wins in year one with Vrabel. "
Kerr has provided a nice, balanced view of the Patriots, who, under Mike Vrabel, are trying to rebound from the personnel and coaching mistakes of two previous unsuccessful operations. They landed the Patriots at the bottom of the AFC East the past two seasons.
The projected ceiling and floor for the Patriots' 2025 record are both too low
Kerr's predicted floor record for the Patriots is 5-12. That's too low for several reasons. This team has Drake Maye, a now seasoned second-year quarterback (not a rookie with no first-team reps before around game four of the regular season), along with a rebuilt offensive line and four new receivers to depend on. In addition, they have a solid defense with far better players.
The terrible 2024 roster still delivered four wins, though one was a joke win in their final game against the Bills, which cost the team the first overall pick in the 2025 draft. Regardless, the 2025 team's floor has to be seven wins. Both starting 11s are better, and barring catastrophic injuries, it will be reflected in the team's record.
On the high end, this can get tricky. The starting teams are a mile ahead of where they were in 2024, and that team only lost six games by one score. This team is more than one score better each game. Yet, while the starters are now NFL caliber, the depth, which will take time to build, isn't. Realistically, this will put a ceiling on the team's wins at 9 or 10, or maybe even 11 if they can stay away from too many major injuries.
The suggested floor record of a 5-12 season would be a disappointment. Even with major injuries, the talent level is better than a five-win team. Seven wins should be the floor, or the season will be a disappointment. On the high end, if things break right, the Patriots could soar to unexpected heights.
In 2025, they have an NFL-proven winning Head Coach, in Mike Vrabel. On offense, they sport a more seasoned Drake Maye, a vastly improved offensive line, a far better receiving corps, and an explosive running back. With the addition of multiple new playmakers on defense, this team can win 9 or 10 games and make the playoffs. The hope is for injury luck, the 10 or 11 wins, and a playoff berth. There, anything can happen.