The New England Patriots will emerge from their bye week as an NFL enigma. While Mike Vrabel’s group can already clinch the AFC East title in Week 15 with a win at home over the Buffalo Bills, analysts (and computer models) still don’t view them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders this year.
ESPN’s FPI model, for example, has the 11-2 Patriots ranked 15th in its power index, behind teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, and even the Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots are getting weighed down significantly by their 32nd-ranked strength of schedule, but ESPN’s algorithm clearly isn’t factoring in the team’s 10 consecutive victories and 6-0 record on the road.
New England is also eight spots behind the Bills, despite beating Buffalo in Orchard Park back in Week 5, winning two more games overall, and the Bills facing eight common opponents (and counting) through 13 games.
It’s not just ESPN, either. BetMGM currently lists Buffalo as the favorite to be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl this year at +400, ahead of both the Patriots and Denver Broncos (+375).
As laughable (and annoying) as this stuff is for Patriots fans, those lines will move massively in New England’s favor if it can beat Josh Allen and the Bills in Sunday’s early afternoon showdown in Foxboro. Either way, the Patriots are in a great position to win the division and host a playoff game in January — a major win for a franchise coming off back-to-back four-win seasons.
The real story here is what the NFL already knows — the Patriots are definitely back, and one NFL analyst articulated that point in a way fans need to hear.
Are Mike Vrabel’s Patriots better suited for sustained success than Ben Johnson’s Bears?
The Patriots entered Week 14 in sole possession of first place in the AFC. Ditto for the Chicago Bears, who, like the Patriots, have climbed to the top of their conference with a new head coach after finishing in the bottom 10 of the league in 2024.
NFL analyst Bucky Brooks, siding a bit with the advanced metrics, recently backed Ben Johnson’s Bears as the team most likely to make a deep playoff run this year in a piece for NFL.com. He shifted to Vrabel’s Patriots, though, as the team most likely to achieve sustained success over time, with a chance to achieve the NFL’s next dynasty.
“With Vrabel overseeing the operation as an experienced head coach who won three Super Bowls as a player, the future is quite bright again in Foxborough, with the franchise quarterback and nucleus in place. This only feels like the beginning. That's right, people: New England is back.”
The Patriots are definitely in a great spot, as Vrabel already has his entire roster pulling in the same direction, with plenty of opportunities to add depth and talent to the roster. Fans should eat up Vrabel getting love over Johnson, too, as the Bears’ head coach was widely viewed as the hottest candidate entering last year’s hiring cycle.
Why the NFL world continues to convince itself that the Patriots aren’t the best team in football right now — or, at the very least, the AFC — has gotten a little comical at this point. The schedule is the schedule, and the Patriots — quarterback Drake Maye in particular — have more than passed the eye test at this point.
But just like Vrabel’s playing days, this team will do its talking on the field, starting with the Bills this Sunday at 1 p.m.