The Patriots began their 2025 pre-season games in emphatic style by thumping the Washington Commanders sub-JVs (Jayden Daniels and others didn't even suit up) at Gillette Stadium 48-18. Take it for what it's worth. Any pre-season game should be taken with a grain, or a barrel-full of salt, but it's better to win them than not.
Lessons can be learned either way, and it's the performance trends of individual players in real NFL game situations that are the takeaways. What was evident from that first preseason game was that the Patriots are playing clean football with only two penalties logged against them. That's a good sign.
Not so great was second-year quarterback Drake Maye's ill-advised passing attempt that led to a fumble. That's a "rookie mistake", and the Patriots can't have them if they are going to meet their rising expectations. Overall, the emphatic crushing of the Commanders won't diminish those expectations much, but the Patriots are still getting little respect in some quarters.
USA Today predicts a sub-.500 record for the 2025 Patriots
In an X post, BetMGM recently cited USA Today's predictions for NFL teams' records in 2025. The good news is that they predicted the Patriots to finish second in the AFC East, quite a sensible prediction. The bad news is that they pegged the Patriots to finish with an 8-9 record.
USA Today’s official NFL projections are here …
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) August 8, 2025
What stands out? pic.twitter.com/2tFZeijTYm
While it's convenient to be taken in by the miserable two preceding seasons of 3-14 and 4-13, it lacks perception not to acknowledge the massive changes that have taken place over the 2025 offseason. It all started in January with the hiring of Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel and his experienced coaching staff represent a significant upgrade from the 2024 team. Vrabel himself is a former NFL 2021 Coach of the Year, no small achievement. In addition, his two coordinators include multiple Super Bowl winners, Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels and long-time Vrabel Assistant (including as his Assistant Head Coach in Tennessee), Defensive Coordinator Terrell Williams, for starters.
Mike Vrabel's personnel rebuild in the 2025 offseason was a masterpiece
While coaching is critical, having talent on the field is what ultimately wins games. The 2024 roster was eminently forgettable. Vrabel has made wholesale changes and succeeded in upgrading virtually every unit on the field. Any resemblance between the 2024 version and the 2025 version will only reside in some of the better players who remain.
The amateurish personnel effort of the 2024 offseason was turned entirely on its head by Mike Vrabel and his new personnel administration. He rebuilt an offensive line that was the worst in the NFL with more than a half dozen veteran and rookie additions. Drake Maye will have a lot more time to throw this season than last, and the run blocking will also be greatly enhanced.
For receivers, Vrabel added two top veterans and two rookies who'll likely make the squad, along with just two or three returnees from 2024. It's a major overhaul of a unit that ranked near the bottom of the league. It will be vastly improved. He also added an explosive running back in the draft in TreVeyon Henderson, who flashed that ability on his first play, scoring a touchdown on a kick return.
That's just the offense. On defense, Vrabel was also busy. He added better players at all three levels from the defensive line and the edge, to the linebacking corps, to the secondary. The clear objective was to add playmakers, and he did so at virtually every position.
Playmakers win games, and the 2025 Patriots have plenty more than last season's team. It's never easy to take a doormat like the 2024 Patriots and transform them into a winner in one offseason, but the bet here is that Vrabel has done just that. And don't be shocked if they even challenge the mighty Buffalo Bills for the AFC title this season.
The listless 2024 Patriots had a rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, and that team lost six games by only one score. With a more experienced Maye and all the other additions, USA Today's tepid prediction will be swept away. Mike Vrabel's Patriots will win 10 or 11 games and sail into the 2025 playoffs, or "tournament" as Bill Parcells used to call it. There, who knows what might happen.