Outside of rookie quarterback Drake Maye, there has not been much for New England Patriots fans to cheer for in the 2024 season. The Patriots have won just three games heading into Week 17 and have a bottom-five point differential in the league.
Good things can come out of bad seasons, though, and Patriots fans were reminded of that on Sunday. New England locked up a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft by losing to the Chargers on Saturday and one day later, the Pats now find themselves in the driver's season for the No. 1 overall pick.
The New York Giants held the No. 1 overall pick before upsetting (and eliminating) the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. With the win, the Giants move to 3-13 on the season and find themselves below the Patriots, who are now slotted with the No. 1 overall pick, per Tankathon.
Patriots gain control of No. 1 overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft thanks to the Giants
Strength of schedule is the tiebreaker for teams who have the same record and the Patriots have a distinct advantage over other three-win teams. New England's SOS is currently .466 with the next-worst three-win team being the Tennessee Titans, who have a .510 SOS.
Tankathon calculates SOS for all 17 games, not just the games that are played. So while there will be some difference between these numbers and the final numbers, the difference will not be as large as those that only factor in the games that have already been played.
The only team close to the Patriots in SOS was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who had a .475 SOS heading into Week 17. However, a win over the Titans moves the Jags to 4-12.
With the SOS where it currently is, all the Patriots have to do is lose to the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Losing to Buffalo isn't a tall order, although the Bills could rest some starters in what is a pointless Week 18 game for the team.
Securing the No. 1 overall pick can truly be franchse-altering for the Patriots. It would give the Patriots their choice of prospect to take with no other variables to worry about. However, that was probably already the case with the Giants likely taking a quarterback with the No. 1 pick.
A new door has opened for the Patriots. While this isn't a great quarterback draft, the Patriots could capitalize on a quarterback-hungry team and trade down. New England could theoretically get a draft haul for the No. 1 pick and still end up with the same prospect the team would have taken anyway.
Back in 2023 the Chicago Bears acquired a slew of draft capital and D.J. Moore for trading down so the Carolina Panthers could draft Bryce Young. The Patriots may not trade all the way down to the ninth pick, but they could get a similar package from a team in search of a quarterback.
Teams like the Tennessee Titans or Las Vegas Raiders could send the Patriots a future first-round pick (and then some) to move up to the No. 1 pick to take their quarterback of choice. New England was never going to get the same grandfather offers with the No. 2 pick, especially if the Giants take a quarterback.
It might go against everything Patriots fans stand for but just for today only, take a moment to appreciate the New York Giants.