A win is just a win in the NFL, until it isn't. The New England Patriots' dramatic win over the AFC East Champion Buffalo Bills was a statement game. ESPN has now given them a 67.6 percent chance of getting back to the NFL playoffs after this season. What a difference a week makes.
The 2025 Patriots are beginning to look like the [playoff team that some expected after Mike Vrabel was hired. He shook the dilapidated 2024 roster out the window like a dusty old rug and conducted a massive rebuild in just one offseason. Vrabel's efforts were masterful. The Patriots finally made the right decision when they hired him.
The roster was turned over by almost half, as many non-performers and players who don't fit his style of play were shown the door. Yet, for the first three weeks of the season, it looked like the same sloppy version of a team that won a race to the bottom of the AFC East the past two seasons. Both coaches were then summarily dismissed. Now, the worm has turned.
Mike Vrabel has the Patriots on an upward trajectory
The Patriots now stand at 3-2 on the season. The irony is that they could easily have been 5-0, sitting above the Bills, whom they just beat. The team was their own worst enemy in the first four games, though they won two of them. Turnovers and penalties hampered those efforts, and only the brilliance of quarterback Drake Maye led them to wins.
Now, Boston.com's Khari Thompson points out that the Patriots are seen to be rising among possible playoff contenders.
"ESPN, in the latest edition of its Football Power Index, is giving the Patriots a 67.6 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Bills, Colts, Jaguars, Steelers, and Broncos are the only teams in the AFC ahead of the Patriots in those rankings at the moment.
Again, it’s early. There are 12 games left in the season, and a lot can happen between now and January. But, going on the road and beating last year’s AFC East champs and the reigning MVP put the Patriots one step closer to their goal of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2021."
Mistakes cost any NFL team, including the Bills, as MVP quarterback Josh Allen pointed out after they turned the ball over three times in the New England loss. Playing mistake-free is a key to winning if you have the other pieces in place. Fortunately, the Patriots have the most important one on hand in Drake Maye.
Drake Maye will lead the Patriots to the playoffs
Predictions on the Patriots before their first game were all over the lot. A few had them putting things together and competing with the Bills after a brilliant offseason by Vrabel. Others didn't. Yet, the signs of a potential playoff run were there if you analyzed the facts.
First, Drake Maye is no longer a rookie. He had started only 12 games in 2024, after not getting any first-team snaps in the preseason, nor until about game four in the regular season. While that stunted his development, he's too talented to be constrained. His two biggest problems in 2024 were his awful offensive line and receiving corps.
Regardless, he still completed 66 percent of his passes in a brilliant display.
Vrabel astutely devoted massive resources to upgrading both. While they aren't top-of-the-NFL quality, they are still significantly improved. It should have been clear that improvement in both would make a drastic difference. Though there were skeptics about his potential, Maye now has a 73.9 percent completion rate after five games. He's now teetering on the brink of a predicted 74 or 75 percent completion percentage in 2025.
Absent another fumble by Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots played a relatively clean game against Buffalo. It made all the difference as Maye outplayed the brilliant Allen and took home the win. If that trend continues, ESPN's prediction of the likely chance of the Patriots making the playoffs may very well be underestimated.
When you have a top coach/personnel evaluator and a great young quarterback, anything is possible.