The NFL draft kicks off on April 24 in Green Bay. It's creeping forward quickly, and the excitement and anticipation are bubbling over, especially in cities with a top pick in the first round. The Patriots are one of them, and speculation about who they'll select in the first round is rife.
Holding the fourth pick overall is excellent. The Patriots, unfortunately, threw the first pick away when they "beat" Buffalo's practice squad in the final game of 2024. It was a win worth losing for a team headed for the dumpster, and is now coming to haunt them, as the latest draft updates suggest their best options won't be on the board by the time they're on the clock.
Who they will pick continues to spout all kinds of theories, even if they'll trade down in the draft (a possible scenario) to secure the player they want. Unfortunately, all of the mock drafts and predictions are just speculation.
There is no way to draw definitive conclusions about who the Patriots will pick at No. 4
No one knows how the draft will unfold on any given pick, except the team with the first one, the Tennessee Titans. They hold all the cards, and their pick will help unravel some of the rest of the cards that will be played thereafter.
If the Titans take a quarterback, the dynamic for other teams that need one may change. If they take a positional player like Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter, teams seeking a quarterback will have two top ones still on the board and may try to move up to get one.
The same can be said for every other pick in the top seven or eight. There are about that number of blue-chip talents who'll likely become immediate starters on any NFL team they join. If not, they shouldn't be drafted at that lofty a position.
Unfortunately, some teams aspire to the faulty "best player available" theory that's been promoted for decades. That suggests that if a player is available who may be a bit better than one who's a need on your team, you take the former. That's a strategy that makes little sense.
Every offseason, an NFL team's objective should be to improve with every player acquired in free agency, by trade, or in the draft. You'd also better fill your positions of need, or you'll repeat the same mistakes of the previous season(s). Look no further than the Patriots, neglecting to add even one left tackle to their team in the 2024 offseason, costing them their season before it began.
Other dynamics at work for the Patriots and any other NFL team
Trades can alter the top of the draft landscape dramatically. A trade-up by another team to get ahead of you that lands your player of choice will ruin your day and maybe your draft. In the Patriots' case, they are fortunate that a player at a top position of need will be available when they pick at No. 4.
No matter who's selected ahead of them, blue-chip players, i.e., the top seven or so, will be there at pick No. 4, or even if they trade down a pick or three, to the sixth or seventh pick. This indicates a draft reality - if you're going to be lousy, you might as well be terrible and wind up with a draft position where you can't mess up that high pick. They were in 2024.
Another issue that could muddy the waters is that some teams may evaluate players differently. It can result in a massive reach for a player whose talent didn't justify selection as high as the consensus deemed justifiable.
An archetypal example of this in recent years is the Patriots' selection of guard Cole Strange in the 2022 first round. That pick evoked laughter (literally) on national TV by the Rams, the reigning NFL Champions. It was an embarrassment and turned out even worse. Predictably, Strange has been a bust and may not even make the team in 2025.
In the draft, in the final analysis, it all comes down to determining the player you want and if they're available, drafting them with your pick, trading up to get them if the cost isn't exorbitant, or taking the next best player of need available.
The Patriots at pick No. 4 will get a terrific player at a position of need. Alternatively, because they have several needs, they can trade down a few picks and still get the draft's best player at a position of need since they have several. It's a good position to be in. Hopefully, they'll ace the test with Mike Vrabel at the controls in 2025.