With a new day comes new predictions for NFL teams, as their schedules and offseason successes are factored into projections for the 2026 season.
Predictions for the New England Patriots vary, but most see their increasingly difficult 2026 schedule as a reason to expect the team to regress. Some of that pessimism is over the top, but not all of it is.
The Athletic's Mike Jones sees the Patriots as one of the NFL's most overrated teams in 2026.
Included in his argument is the enduring reality of the strength-of-schedule differential between the powderpuff 2025 last-place schedule and that of Mike Vrabel's 2026 team, after winning the AFC East Division. His observation is sound and justified.
The Patriots must be better this season or risk regressing to a new low
Jones sees the Patriots as overrated and points out a few reasons why they may regress to a more realistic level than the lofty heights of the 2025 season.
"The Patriots certainly exceeded expectations in 2025, overtaking Buffalo for the division and reaching the Super Bowl, where they lost to the Seattle Seahawks. Mike Vrabel and his players badly want to resolve unfinished business in 2026, but doing so could prove challenging. New England will not have the luxury of sneaking up on teams this season.
The Patriots also have a grueling start, with three road games in their first four weeks and two back-to-back road trips in their first 10 weeks. The Patriots landed A.J. Brown in hopes that he can help elevate Drake Maye, but chemistry could take some time. New England also still seems to lack a game-changing pass rush, which needs to change for their defense to take another step forward."
Jones is right that the Patriots exceeded expectations for 2025 by a lot. Almost no one saw them competing for the AFC East title, never mind winning it. They confounded the experts and relegated the mighty Buffalo Bills to also-ran status in the division for the first time since 2020, and the departure of perennial Buffalo Bill-basher Tom Brady.
His points about their schedule are well-publicized and well-founded. Trying to minimize the importance of that fact is indefensible. Their first four games are against 2025 playoff teams, with three away.
The first away game is a rematch with the Seattle Seahawks, who crushed them in the 2025 Super Bowl. It's indeed going to be a tough early season for a team in just the second year of a massive roster reconstruction.
The point about the lack of a pass-rush is also sound. The Patriots' edge position is paper-thin, and the long absence of second-round pick Jabe Jacas, who has yet to see the field, complicates things further. In addition, starter Harold Landry III is not practicing. Landry had a 2025 knee injury, and it may not be fully healed yet.
One point Jones makes that doesn't hold water is suggesting that Drake Maye and A.J. Brown may have trouble establishing "chemistry". One might argue that chemistry is already there. Brown is a consummate professional and a true No. 1 receiver.
There will be little dysfunction for these two stars in creating a productive partnership.
Drake Maye is likely only a solid offensive line and full tight end complement away from earning his first MVP. Brown and his fellow newcomer Romeo Doubs will help make his 2026 passing attack even more formidable.
Also, his dynamic backfield duo of bruising big running back Rhamondre Stevenson and electric TreVeyon Henderson will provide thunder and lightning on the ground.
Naysayers and doomsayers will primarily pounce on the strength-of-schedule issue to downgrade the Patriots' 2026 prospects. The best rejoinder to that pessimism is to remind them that the team has one of the best young quarterbacks in football who's headed to the very top, barring injury.
If his complementary players perform as they hopefully will, the sky is the limit for MVP-candidate Drake Maye and the 2026 Patriots, a more difficult schedule notwithstanding.
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