With the AFC East already locked up, the Patriots now shift their focus to winning their season finale game against the Dolphins next Sunday and hope to hold onto the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff picture or, better yet, steal the No. 1 seed and get a first-round bye.
After this weekend's slate of games, that still looked like a real possibility, but now that the Chargers have announced a decision regarding QB Justin Herbert's status for next week's game, it looks like the Patriots will have to be content with staying put at No. 2.
That's because head coach Jim Harbaugh announced on Monday afternoon that Herbert will not play against the Broncos in Week 18, basically confirming they will rest their starters. Most believe Denver will easily get the win and secure their spot at the top of the conference.
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh told reporters that QB Justin Herbert will not start Sunday vs. Denver.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 29, 2025
If that becomes a reality, the Patriots won't move into the No. 1 spot, as the Broncos win the tiebreaker if they end the season with the same record. That would likely mean they'll face the Chargers on Wild Card weekend, which might be better than other outcomes.
The Patriots now have a better idea of what the playoffs will look like for them
The immediate reaction from those in New England to Harbaugh's announcement focused on what that means for the team's playoff future.
The best-case scenario is they host the Chargers in the first round, which means they avoid playing the Bills (again) or having to deal with the dominant Texans' defense.
There you have it from the Chargers side. Hard to imagine LA beating the Broncos with Trey Lance at QB.
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) December 29, 2025
Still think there’s value in the #Patriots playing for the No. 2 seed. Guarantees two home playoff games and maybe you avoid BUF/HOU in the wild card round. https://t.co/qH2TyKL8nC
They could eventually face one of them the further they get into the playoffs, but avoiding them right away certainly increases their chances of moving on.
Taking on the Chargers, however, is not something they should overlook. Herbert is a talented quarterback with an impressive group of weapons around him, who has embarrassed the Patriots in recent years.
They'll still have to prepare as if they're playing the best of the best, and hopefully, take down the Chargers to continue on their unbelievable path that has been the 2025 season.