Over the last six years, the Patriots haven't often gone into a game in Buffalo and felt confident they could steal a win against the reigning division winners. It's always been a tough place to play, especially post-Tom Brady, even if they managed to sneak out with a close win just last season.
Making things even harder is going into this week's game knowing the Bills are undefeated and have no plans to change that soon, which may be more achievable now that the Patriots will be without Christian Barmore and Christian Gonzalez, two of their best defensive starters.
Then there is the expectation that Drake Maye will continue to struggle, making the job easier for the league's leading pass rusher, Greg Rousseau, who currently has six sacks this season.
It's a recipe for disaster, and the only thing that might give the Patriots a legitimate chance to get their season back on track with a win this week is how the Chargers fared against them last week.
Although they failed to win, despite leading 10-0 at one point, their defense wreaked havoc on Buffalo's offense, forcing five turnovers, three of which came from Josh Allen, two interceptions and a fumble.
The Patriots have a lot to learn from the Bills' near loss ahead of their Week 4 game
Looking back at what should have been a Bills loss last week, the Patriots should take notes and try to bring the same kind of pressure to Allen that the Chargers managed through four quarters.
The quarterback was sacked four times for a loss of 30 yards. That pressure all game long forced Allen into mistakes, including two interceptions and a fumble. Running back James Cook and tight end Dalton Kincaid also fumbled, giving the Chargers' offense more opportunities to move the ball.
They couldn't do that, obviously, since the game ended 24-16. But quarterback Justin Herbert spread the ball around, with four pass catchers recording at least 35 yards, and they utilized their running back duo to keep the chains moving.
For the Patriots, that sounds easier said than done, since TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson haven't been able to do much successfully so far, partly because of the offensive line's inconsistent play.
However, if they can get that figured out better than they have so far, it could be a game changer.
They also need to take advantage of just how weak the Bills' defense has been against slot receivers over the last three weeks. They are currently allowing 11.8 yards per target to slot receivers, ranking 30th in the league, which should mean DeMario Douglas could have a big day.
The Chargers reaped that reward last week with Ladd McConkey, who recorded four catches for 66 yards, averaging 16.5 yards per catch. So this should be the Douglas breakout game Patriots fans have been waiting to see.
Defensively, young players will face a lot of pressure to keep moving in the right direction, mostly Gabe Jacas and Elijah Ponder. Both have had standout moments over the last three games; they just need to be more consistent. Fortunately, they should have Dre'Mont Jones back on the field.
None of this seems too difficult for the Patriots to achieve, but it's difficult to be optimistic based on how they've performed so far. If they can get back to basics, they will have a real shot at taking down the division leader.
Maye will need to have a solid game, too, which will hopefully happen this week.
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