The New England Patriots had the No. 4 overall pick back in April after a horrific 4-13 season, their second four-win year in a row. The miraculous part about 2024 is that going into the year, they weren't favored in a single game: four wins were a major overperformance by Vegas's standards.
Fast forward eight months, and New England is the best team in the NFL, sitting atop the AFC at 11-2. For good reason, there are complaints from opposing fans about their easy schedule: they are the only team in the league whose opponents' winning percentage averages to below 40%.
Nonetheless, the team can only play who's in front of them, and they will triple their win total from last year if they win just one more game, a feat that would have seemed impossible a few months ago.
Not only does the media now respect New England as a threat, but it's also considered the top candidate to retain the No. 1 seed in CBS Sports' John Breech's latest predictions, beating out the Denver Broncos.
The Patriots are the No. 1 seed in the AFC based on this prediction
At 11-2, New England has four games to go. After their Week 14 bye, they'll take on the Buffalo Bills at home for their second matchup of the year. A win would secure the AFC East and officially lock the Patriots into a top-four playoff spot. Last time, New England was beginning their ascension, beating the Bills 23-20. They haven't lost since.
After their matchup with Buffalo, New England will play a division leader, the 6-6 Baltimore Ravens, who are Breech's projected AFC North winners and the No. 4 seed in his playoff picture. I'd agree with this prediction, as Baltimore is 5-1 since Lamar Jackson's return and has completely turned their season around.
They'll play the Steelers two times in the final five weeks, giving them the opportunity to crown themselves kings of the north.
Jackson and Derrick Henry won't make the game easy, and they absolutely have something to play for. Add in that the game is in Baltimore and the Patriots' struggles against mobile QBs, and this could be a game they lose. Jackson is 2-1 against New England in his career, averaging 30.3 PPG.
The Patriots should handle the Jets in Week 17, and depending on other teams' records, they may be able to rest their starters against the Dolphins. Resting starters or not, the Dolphins battled in a 33-27 loss earlier in the year, and it should be another tough game for New England.
They are 0-2 against Miami in the last week of the season since 2019, losing the No. 1 seed to the Chiefs after a last-minute Mike Gesicki touchdown.
The final few games could mean history in Foxborough
Splitting the final four games would be the worst-case scenario, leaving New England at 13-4. Given that they've already beaten the Bills, Baltimore's 26th-ranked passing defense, and the inferior squads of the Jets and Dolphins, it isn't ridiculous to say Vrabel and Co. keep the good times rolling and make it to 15 wins.
If they were to do so, it would be the second-most regular-season wins in team history, behind only the 2007 season. It would also be the second-highest win percentage by the franchise in a season, as the 17-game season was introduced in 2021.
Breech's prediction has Denver as the No. 2 seed, the Colts taking back the division from the Jaguars to secure the third slot, and the Ravens winning the AFC North. The Bills are the No. 5 seed, while the Chiefs miraculously find a way into the 6th spot. The Jaguars round out the playoff picture, with the Chargers, currently 8-4, and the 7-5 Texans ending the season on the outside looking in.
The next few weeks will be very interesting, and Patriots fans are no doubt curious to see how things shake out. The last four times they've nabbed the No. 1 seed, they've also won the Super Bowl. While that may seem like a huge ask, they've proven they're the cream of the crop in the AFC.
While the NFC provides its own set of challenges, New England won't face another team from the opposite conference until a potential Super Bowl appearance. The Patriots are tied with the Broncos and Bills at +1100, or a 1/11 chance, as favorites to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
If New England can wrap up the season with 14-15 wins, a Super Bowl appearance isn't an unreasonable expectation. Seeing as that win total would likely earn them a bye, an AFC Championship appearance should be the baseline. The next few weeks will be an incredible watch for Pats Nation.