The New England Patriots are heading to Munich, Germany, ahead of their bye week to take on the 6-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. While the Patriots remain in line for the playoffs despite being ravaged by injuries, their matchup against the Packers raised more questions than it answered.
After narrowly beating a rebuilding Dolphins squad in Week 8, the Patriots were embarrassed at home by the Packers, their second loss this season in as many games to NFC North teams. Before the fourth quarter even began, the Packers had scored 42 points and finished with 45.
The Patriots will need to control the game to stand a chance against Dan Campbell's squad, which is on a four-game winning streak heading into the game.
3 bold predictions ahead of the Patriots game against the Lions
Patriots avoid turning the ball over for the first time since January
The Patriots have yet to have a game without a turnover this season. During the single season Cam Newton was at the helm in 2020, the offense totaled 19 turnovers. The Patriots have as many in nine games this season.
This might be wishful thinking, but I'm not sure there's a game where not turning the ball over is more important. The Lions have one of the league's most potent offenses, and while they've slowed down over the past few weeks, giving them additional possessions is a recipe for disaster.
The Detroit defense has been better over the past few games than at the start of the season, but they still rank 24th in the league, forcing one turnover forced per game. Unfortunately, the defense hasn't seemed to matter against the Patriots, who turn the ball over at the highest rate in football.
Stylistically, I'd expect the defense to give Corey Kiner and Mack Hollins less attention than Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas, both of whom have been productive despite the team's numerous injuries. Furthermore, I'd expect the team to shorten the game with consistent running from Kiner, who's been consistent this season in yards per carry.
Avoiding turnovers and shortening the game is New England's best chance at beating a far superior Lions squad. Winning will be a tough task, but keeping the ball out of the hands of Kelvin Sheppard's defense will be the easiest route to victory.
Corey Kiner still has a great showing, even with Rhamondre Stevenson playing
Rhamondre Stevenson's knee injury was supposed to keep him out for several weeks, while TreVeyon Henderson's was placed on IR. But the veteran is set to play on Sunday, leaving Corey Kiner waiting for his opportunity to get a start.
Kiner has had a strong past few weeks, with his cleanup work against the Packers in the fourth quarter being especially impressive. During New England's final drive, a Tommy DeVito-led offense found paydirt, and Kiner finished the drive in the end zone.
All things considered, it feels like a solid bet that Kiner spearheads the backfield, assuming the Patriots keep Stevenson on a snap count due to his injury.
While 15 carries may not seem like "dominating" the backfield, it aligns with the carry totals Stevenson has seen this year. The former Oklahoma Sooner has averaged 11.3 carries per game so far and has hit the 15-carry mark only twice. He has, however, had 13 or 14 carries on three occasions.
Whether Kiner manages production against a decent Lions front remains to be seen. The Lions' run defense ranks 8th, and no player has run for more than 55 yards against them since October 5 (Chuba Hubbard). However, the teams the Lions faced in that span generally had poor rushing attacks.
Over nine weeks, only the Dolphins (13th) ranked in the top half of the league. The Cardinals (22nd), Packers (32nd), and Vikings (19th) are all below-average threats.
The Patriots rank 10th in rushing yards per game this season, meaning they'll be the second-best rushing attack the Lions have faced all year. Their first was the Bills in Week 2, a game in which James Cook and Josh Allen combined for 204 yards and three touchdowns from 35 carries: an average of 5.8 yards per carry.
Kiner is one of the few Patriots backups who's managed to make the most of his opportunities. The Patriots' weapons are limited, and his success is not guaranteed. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if New England looks to shorten the game with a conservative, run-heavy plan, particularly against a run defense that's largely unproven against reliable rushing offenses.
Mack Hollins reaches 100 receiving yards for just the second time as a Patriot
This take is somewhat at odds with Kiner's carry projection, but Mack Hollins reaching the century mark isn't unreasonable, even if he manages only 15 carries.
The Patriots' weapons are incredibly limited. Pop Douglas' 102-yard performance against the Packers and 70.4 yards per game since October 11 mean he'll be among the top players the Lions' defense is looking to bottle up.
Top Lions cornerback D.J. Reed has a body type that matches Douglas, meaning featuring the former Liberty wideout may not be the best plan.
Instead, the team could turn to Hollins.
The veteran averages 49.0 yards per game this season and had his first touchdown of the year in last weekend's blowout loss to Green Bay. Nonetheless, Maye has trusted Hollins when the going gets tough. Hollins missed the team's first two playoff games last year, but led the team in yards in both the AFCCG and the Super Bowl.
The Lions' cornerbacks beyond Reed aren't all that impressive. Ennis Rakestraw has played just 178 snaps since being selected in the second round in 2024. While he missed his entire sophomore campaign due to injury, he hasn't excelled so far.
Roger McCreary is a veteran who's been the full-time slot corner, while former second-round pick Rock Ya-Sin provides depth. None of those players are better at cornerback than Hollins is at receiver.
With Douglas likely the primary focus of the Lions' defense, I'd expect 33-year-old Hollins to be the primary target for Maye on Sunday, and surpass a hundred yards for the third time in his career, and for the first time since Week 10 of last season.
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