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Patriots get another bump in the road for the 2023 season

By Sara Marshall

Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick rubs his head during the fourth quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 1, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick rubs his head during the fourth quarter of a game against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Patriots have had quite an offseason so far, with lots of drama and speculation fueled by rumors from unnamed sources and driven by click-chasing media. And although it seems like they’ve had their fair share of unrest over the last few months, a new report from NFL analytics expert Warren Sharp just made things worse.

When the league released the complete list of opponents for every team, it was clear New England would have a tough showing once again. But Sharp just confirmed the worst-case scenario, determining the Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2023 season based on Las Vegas oddsmakers’ projected win totals.

Because they’re currently amidst a complete offensive makeover with several positions still needing to be upgraded to be competitive, this adds more roadblocks in their path to getting back on track.

The report estimates the Patriots to win just 7.6 games, which most would say seems pretty accurate given their current roster and the opponents they face.

HOME GAMES:

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Indianapolis Colts
  • Washington Commanders
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Miami Dolphins
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • New Orleans Saints
  • New York Jets

AWAY GAMES:

  • Buffalo Bills
  • Denver Broncos
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Miami Dolphins
  • New York Giants
  • New York Jets
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Pittsburgh Steelers

Regarding Sharp’s model’s accuracy in determining the strength of schedules, he shared statistics that resulted in how he predicted them last year.

"Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:of the 10 teams predicted to have the hardest 2022 schedules, only 2 went to the playoffs (Bengals, Chiefs)of the 7 teams forecast to have losing records but predicted to have easier than average schedules, 5 went over their win total (Giants, Lions, Commanders, Jaguars, Panthers)of the 9 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Vikings)Are Strength of Schedule projections accurate? Short answer: YESof the 7 teams that actually had the easiest 2022 schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs)of the 7 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, 2 went to the playoffs (Dolphins, Bengals)of the 11 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, only 3 went over their win total (Bengals, Steelers, Jets)"

The Patriots have a tough road ahead of them and will almost certainly need to knock the draft out of the park and/or pull off a blockbuster trade to boost their team enough to get some wins.

The accuracy of his schedule predictions leaves little optimism for the upcoming season, but let’s hope the Patriots will be an outlier this year and be one of the teams to disprove Sharp’s theory for the sake of the team and the fans.

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