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Top Prop Bets for Week 17: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

By Jon Cirrinone

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 18: Damien Harris #37 of the New England Patriots celebrates after a touchdown during the second half in the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 18: Damien Harris #37 of the New England Patriots celebrates after a touchdown during the second half in the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
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Top 5 Player Prop Bets for Week 17: #2 and #1

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill over 71.5 receiving yards (-115) and Tyreek Hill’s longest reception over 25.5 yards (-110) – DraftKings Sportsbook

By now, I think I’ve probably made pretty clear how I expect this game to go. In case it bears repeating, the Patriots’ secondary is hurt. Really hurt. Shaun Wade is going to get actual playing time on Sunday; that’s how you know things are bad. Practice squad corners Quandre Mosely (rookie) and Tae Hayes (signed Tuesday) may see the field.

On the other side, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle make up one of the top receiving duos in football. The Patriots are fresh off allowing 16 receptions for 207 yards and a touchdown to the Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins duo, and they had fewer injuries last week.

Tyreek Hill is second in the NFL in both receptions (113) and receiving yards (1,632). While Jonathan Jones has historically corralled Hill relatively well, dating back to Hill’s time with the Chiefs, it seems that Jones won’t be at 100%.

Hill only has four games this season with fewer than 71.5 receiving yards. In Week 1 against the Patriots, he kicked off his Dolphins career with eight receptions for 94 yards. He has since had absurd single-game receiving totals of 190, 188, 177, 160, 146, and 143 yards. In the two outings, Bridgewater played a significant number of snaps (Weeks 4 and 6), and Tyreek Hill had 14 and 15 targets, respectively.

In Bridgewater’s only start, Hill had a season-high 15 targets and tied his season-high of 12 receptions. He tallied 177 yards in that Week 6 contest, with 160 yards in the Week 4 game that Tua exited early. In that game, Tua and Hill connected four times for 51 yards, while Bridgewater found Hill six times for 109 yards. Teddy Bridgewater knows who butters his bread, and his best chance of finding success in Week 17 is to throw in the direction of Tyreek Hill against a beat-up New England secondary.

I expect Hill to have eight or nine grabs for 90 yards in this one, with at least one going for longer than 26 yards.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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