Top Prop Bets for Week 17: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Top 5 Player Prop Bets for Week 17: #3

Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert under 49.5 rushing yards (-130) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Because the Patriots’ secondary is so injured, I expect the Dolphins to operate as a pass-first offense on Sunday. Outside of injuries, the Patriots’ run defense is fairly stout. The unit ranks ninth in the NFL in yards allowed per game (107.8) and eighth in the NFL in yards per carry (4.2). The unit has allowed a league-low six rushing touchdowns on the season.

Raheem Mostert splits work with Jeff Wilson Jr., with Mostert most recently tallying eight carries for 45 yards, while Wilson notched nine carries for 37 yards and a touchdown in their Week 16 matchup against the Packers. Both players have shown flashes, but this offense runs through receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Especially with Patriots injuries, Bridgewater will look for these two heavily. The run game will likely become an afterthought here.

The rosters looked a bit different when the Patriots faced off against the Dolphins in Week 1. Chase Edmonds led the backfield with 12 carries for 25 yards, while Mostert chipped in five carries for 16 yards. There will likely be a similar output for the Dolphins’ run game on Sunday, with around 50 to 60 total rushing yards. With the split between Mostert and Wilson Jr., I think Raheem Mostert ends up with nine or ten carries.

Mostert is undoubtedly the type of back that can be a home run threat and only needs one run to change the game. I may come to regret this one, but I have Mostert going for around 35 yards.