Top Prop Bets for Week 15: New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Top 4 Player Prop Bets for Week 15: #3

Raiders K Daniel Carlson over 1.5 FG Made (+100) – DraftKings Sportsbook

I know that kicker plays aren’t the sexiest bet on the slate. So I guess I’ll give you two, and we’ll call it even; deal?

I like the Daniel Carlson play even more than the Folk play, and at +100 odds, I love the value. In 13 games this season, Carlson has only three games where he hasn’t booted two or more field goals. He has three misses all season and is north of 90% field goal percentage for three years running. Last year, he led the league in field goals made (40 FGM). This year, he’s tied for the lead with 28 FGM.

I expect the Raiders to move the ball. Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing, and the Derek Carr and Davante Adams connection has finally found its footing. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow could also return this week for Las Vegas.

But the PPatriots’defense is stout. Like so many Patriots defenses of the past, they have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality. Allowing only 18.4 points per game (fifth fewest in the NFL), the Patriots are more likely to give up field goal attempts than touchdowns. The unit is one of only ten defenses that has allowed more field goal attempts than PAT attempts.

As we’ve discussed before, this is a bet on game script. I expect the Las Vegas Raiders, equipped with the league’s rushing leader and all-world receiver, Davante Adams, to move the ball. I expect the Patriots’ defense to mostly clamp down where it matters most. I expect the Raiders to settle for field goal tries. And I expect the league-leading kicker Daniel Carlson to convert those attempts.