Top Prop Bets for Week 13 TNF: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #1

Patriots LB Matthew Judon at least one sack (-110) – DraftKings Sportsbook

This is my favorite play of the day in a slate of eight lines that I like a lot. Matthew Judon has been on a tear this season, and I expect him to show up when the Patriots need him most on Thursday night.

Through 11 games, Judon has 13 sacks and is still atop the league leaders in that department. With Micah Parsons on his heels with 12, I think he gains some separation this week. Judon was blanked last week, coming up without a sack for only the third time this season. In the first two cases, he responded the next game with a vengeance. After being held without a sack in Week 6 against the Browns, Judon snapped back with 2.5 sacks the following week. After again not recording a sack in Week 8 against the Jets, he responded with three sacks the next game.

The Bills do have a solid pass block win rate, ranking 5th in the NFL, so I don’t expect Judon to respond with a three-sack outing this week. The good news is we only need one, and the Bills’ offensive line still occasionally gives them up. They rank 10th-best in the league, having allowed 23 on the season, but at least two sacks in five straight games.

On top of that, starting left tackle Dion Dawkins has been ruled out for Thursday night’s game with an ankle injury. In comes David Quessenberry, who has the tall task of protecting Josh Allen’s blind side. Quessenberry is a former sixth-round pick who entered after Dawkins went down last week and allowed a sack to James Houston IV, a practice squad call-up who got to Allen twice. When Quessenberry started as the right tackle for the Titans last year, he allowed a league-high 11 sacks.

Call me crazy, but I like the NFL’s league leader in sacks in that matchup.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.