Top Prop Bets for Week 13 TNF: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #3 and #2

Bills QB Josh Allen over 7.5 carries (-105) and over 39.5 rushing yards (-140) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Here’s another two-for-one. In case you haven’t noticed, Josh Allen likes to tuck the ball and go. He’s pretty damn good at it too. Through 11 games, Allen has carried the ball 81 times (5th in the NFL among quarterbacks) for 561 yards (4th) and five touchdowns (3rd). He is a threat for a carry on 3rd-and-short or 4th-and-short and at the goal line. And when the pocket breaks down. And on the rare occasion, someone can cover Diggs. And any other scenario, really.

Here’s the other thing. Bill Belichick has never been good at slowing down mobile quarterbacks. It’s really the Achilles’ heel of this unit. Against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, Lamar Jackson torched the Patriots’ defense to the tune of 11 carries, 107 yards, and a touchdown. Justin Fields followed the blueprint in Week 7, running 14 times for 82 yards and a touchdown.

Josh Allen does not possess their otherworldly open-field skills, but he is a freight train to bring down. At 6’5” and 237 pounds, he gets downhill in a hurry and isn’t afraid to take on contact. I believe the Patriots’ pass rush will collapse the pocket on him, but I’m not confident we’ll get enough interior push to limit his scrambling lanes. I would feel better about that possibility with a healthy Christian Barmore, but he’s been battling injury for the better part of the season.

I expect Allen to use his feet in this one and have eight or nine carries for 40 yards or so. I took the alt line of 39.5 yards here at -140, but if you are feeling more daring, the standard line at the time of writing this is 42.5 at -120.