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Top Prop Bets for Week 13 TNF: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

By Jon Cirrinone

FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 20: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots warms up before a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images)
FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 20: Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots warms up before a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Getty Images) /
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Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #4

Bills WR Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (+100) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Bill Belichick is notorious for trying to take away his opponent’s top option. The problem when playing the Buffalo Bills: who do you take away? This offense has so much firepower that it’s a bit of a pick-your-poison predicament.

Last week against Minnesota, the Patriots’ secondary ceded nine receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown to stud wideout Justin Jefferson. The trouble with trying to take away a wideout like Jefferson is that he plays all over the field. He operates on the perimeter and in the slot with ease, which makes defensive scheming difficult.

Stefon Diggs is similar in that way. He is Josh Allen’s go-to target in the same way that Jefferson serves as Kirk Cousins’ top guy. Diggs has had double-digit targets in seven of his 11 games this season, including an outrageous 16 targets in Week 10 and 15 targets in both Weeks 2 and 12. Josh Allen is going to look his way early and often, and while the Patriots’ secondary is a strength, Diggs is a unicorn and is going to get his regardless.

Diggs with Buffalo has had some impressive games against the Patriots. Who can forget his nine-catch, 145-yard, three-touchdown output in Week 16 of 2020? Frankly, he made J.C. Jackson look silly. And this is not Chargers J.C. Jackson either; he was a Top 10 corner in 2020 who had nine interceptions that season. While Mills and the Joneses have been much better than expected, I don’t believe they’re intimidating Diggs much.

Diggs eats when and where he wants, and I don’t expect Thursday night will be much different. I would have loved to have grabbed this line at six receptions, but to get even odds for seven grabs, you almost can’t afford not to. In the Patriots’ last regular season game against Diggs, he had seven receptions for 85 yards and a score. If we can keep him to that, we’ll cash this wager and still have a chance of winning this ballgame. Fingers crossed.

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