Top Prop Bets for Week 13 TNF: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

The New England Patriots suffered a significant setback last Thursday night against the Minnesota Vikings, dropping to 6-5 on the season and back into last place in the AFC East. Despite playing arguably their finest offensive game of the season, the Patriots did not have enough juice in the high-scoring Thanksgiving affair. Hopefully, everyone enjoyed their pie, at least.

Mac Jones was a smooth operator, finally flaunting some of the promise he showed in his rookie campaign. In throwing for 382 yards, Jones set a new career high for himself, adding two touchdowns and boasting a quarterback rating of 119.8. He completed 71.8% of his passes and leaned on workhorse Rhamondre Stevenson, who brought in nine receptions.

We saw DeVante Parker, Hunter Henry, and Jakobi Meyers contribute, and there were even rare sightings from Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Agholor was perhaps most surprising; his six receptions and 65 yards match his totals from Week 4 through Week 11 combined. Productivity from wideouts not named Jakobi Meyers is always a sight for sore eyes.

This game was lost on special teams. Rookie running back Pierre Strong made a critical error by running into the punter and giving the Vikings a fresh set of downs. And in the third quarter, Vikings’ Kene Nwangwu returned a kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. Yes, officiating undoubtedly played a factor (like the blatant missed holding call and the aforementioned kick return TD). Still, the bottom line is the Patriots made too many mistakes to win, and Justin Jefferson was absurd as usual. Tough combination to overcome.

In the betting department, we did a bit better. In fact, we did a lot better. Rhamondre Stevenson delivered an under in rushing yards, the Patriots defense just barely kept T.J. Hockenson under on receiving yards, and Mac Jones covered my favorite bet of the day with 28 completions on a line of 19.5. Yes, we went a cool 3-0, and if you trusted my bonus play of Jones throwing for a pair of touchdowns (175+ on DraftKings), you would have been rewarded with another W there too.

We are back on track at 8-8 for the season, and this week, I have a treat for you. Instead of the usual three wagers, I’m giving you eight. Yes, you read that right; we’ll call it a celebration in honor of Devin McCourty’s 200th career game. Let’s take a look at my top player props for this week’s game against the Buffalo Bills.

Top 8 Player Prop Bets for Week 13: #8

Patriots QB Mac Jones over 220 passing yards (-125) – DraftKings Sportsbook

Mac Jones played his finest game of the season a week ago against the now-32nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Bills certainly have a better defense than the Vikings on paper, but they still rank in the bottom half of the league. Buffalo allows 221.6 passing yards per game (19th) and only gives up 105.6 yards per game on the ground (7th). Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, the Bills average 415.9 total yards per game (2nd).

It’s a simple game of numbers. Yes, the Patriots have a solid defense, but the Bills are going to move the chains and they are going to score points. That’s the unfortunate reality of what we’re up against. The Vikings just put up 358 yards against this same defense, with a similarly talented #1 option in the passing game and a more one-dimensional option at quarterback.

To keep pace and have a chance at winning this ball game, the Patriots will likely utilize a similar attack as they did last week. Mac Jones involved all his pass-catchers, and the offensive line gave him a mostly clean pocket to throw from. The result was 382 yards. Is that going to happen every week? Certainly not, but it was an encouraging sign of growth.

The last time Jones started against Buffalo, in a 47-17 blowout playoff loss last season, Jones threw for 232 yards. As long as we don’t see weather as we did in Week 13 last year (2/3 for 19 yards), I believe Jones has a solid floor. I expect 250+ yards here.